Sunday 19 April 2015

Hamilton never troubled in Bahrain


Star of the race

The Bahrain Grand Prix looked spectacular under the lights, with a magnificent fireworks display to greet the winner, if only the race could have been equally spectacular, although there was enough to keep the average viewer interested. A lot of the consensus from the F1 media was that Nico Rosberg had done a lot this race to reassert himself in the title chase and had showed renewed vigour. Does this make him star of the race? No, he was still pretty comprehensively outshone by his team mate Lewis Hamilton. 

Kimi Raikkonen is my personal star, he drove superbly and perhaps with a tweak to the strategy might have been able to challenge for the win, although I find that doubtful. He had plenty of pace, although I feel he was rather mugged by Rosberg into turn one in the early stages after he'd grabbed third ahead of the Mercedes driver at the start.

As he was when he came back from his rally travels a few years ago, he showed relentless consistency of pace and after being out of pit stop sequence with the other leaders he clawed back the gap when he switched to soft tyres 17 laps from the end. 

He took advantage of Rosberg's failing brakes to move into second but even without that I think he might just have sneaked ahead. As Lewis' brakes went the same way, Kimi carved into the lead, another lap and it might have been a brilliant victory. It was a good race for Kimi, his first podium since 2013, his first race finishing ahead of Sebastian Vettel in 2015 and a reminder that there's more than one Ferrari driver who's going to give Mercedes a few headaches this year.

The winner

On any other day I'd have handed the star of the race to Hamilton but a Kimi podium has been a rarity and it was good to see the Ferrari driver get the result he's deserved this season. 

All the talk before the race had been of Ferrari providing a significant threat and even being touted as favourites to win ahead of the Mercedes cars.


However, Hamilton was in a class of one today, as he has been pretty much all the season so far. He scored a stunning pole position, he led the most laps from the start and pretty much cruised to the chequered flag even with the failing brakes I mentioned above.

The only hint of trouble was when Mercedes brought Rosberg into the pits first to cover off Vettel. It meant the duelling Rosberg and Vettel were right behind Lewis when the #44 Mercedes exited the pit lane. But Hamilton remained calm and gently pulled out a gap again. In truth he was never troubled, at the present moment he's got Rosberg firmly under the thumb.


The battles

As I've said a lot has been made of Rosberg's aggressive approach to the race today. To be fair, he sometimes does make a meal of getting past people but other times he's quite decisive. Today it was nearly ultra clumsy as he dived ahead of Kimi, nearly making contact, but the other moves he made on Vettel were fairly clinical DRS assisted moves he made look easy.


It did look awesome though, under the lights the sparks from the cars shone brightly and made these high powered machines appear all the more impressive for it. It's all very well passing Ferrari's but he couldn't get near his team mate even when given the opportunity after the first pit stops. 

Having said all that it was still a decent performance by Nico and although it might have been difficult to hold Kimi off, his late race brake problems certainly cost him a chance of defending from the Ferrari. A third was still a decent reward for his afternoons work.

Behind the top three Valtteri Bottas in the Williams took fourth after holding off Vettel for 20 laps. It was a fight Vettel never got too close to winning. In truth the Ferrari driver should have been several seconds up the road fighting for a podium. After a great qualifying he'd started second, but let Rosberg by too easily three times. He got ahead in each of the stops but couldn't hold the Mercedes back. 

He also had a hat-trick of off the road moments, the final time resulting in front wing damage which meant an extra pit stop that dropped him behind Bottas. It was probably a relief for the Finn who before had run a rather lonely race and might have been on the edge of falling asleep. Vettel later blamed his problems on failing to find a rhythm as the rear end of the car wasn't to his liking.

Other notable fights were the Saubers and Force India's mixing it up with each other and various other cars. Fernando Alonso's McLaren finished 11th after having some nice moments including unlapping himself from Kimi. The Toro Rosso's both retired after being off the pace in the race despite a top 10 grid slot from Carlos Sainz.

Felipe Massa launched a nice charge from the back of the grid after an electrical problem meant he couldn't start from his sixth placed grid slot. His tyres faded on a two stop strategy and he ended up with just tenth place. 


Sergio Perez in the Force India mixed it up nicely too on a two stopper to move ahead of many midfield three stoppers to come home eighth while his team mate Nico Hulkenberg tumbled from eighth to only 13th.  Red Bull's Daniil Kvyat took two points for ninth after starting 17th. Kvyat needs to step up a gear when F1 returns to Europe in three weeks.

Daniel Ricciardo in the lead Red Bull and Romain Grosjean in the Lotus were the last runners not to be lapped as they ran solitary races to finish sixth and seventh respectively. 

Things of note

When will something go right for Pastor Maldonado? He's quite capable of being a quick driver and scoring decent points but he's also brilliant at screwing up his weekends too. As his team mate Grosjean qualified in the top 10 again and scored points for a second consecutive race, Pastor failed to get out of Q2, drove through the pack only for this time to have a disastrous pit stop with smoke pouring from his brakes. 

Even when he's driving well something seems always to upset the number 13 car... But he should be making more of the car, his team are known to be getting a bit fed up with him but what can they do when he brings so much money to them.


McLaren are making progress as Alonso's 11th placed finish shows, but they also know they have a long way to go. Jenson Button completed just 17 laps all weekend and didn't even participate in qualifying or the race. I know the team are suffering problems and it's a building process with Honda but that is unacceptable, they're not Manor Marussia, they're a world championship winning team, they should be doing better.

Renault too need to up their game as Ricciardo crossed the line with smoke billowing from the rear of the car. It means it's pretty certain Ricciardo will have to suffer a penalty for using more units than is allowed. However, Renault promise upgrades, and Red Bull are bringing lots of new bits to the car for Spain, so lets hope to see them up near the top soon. 

Bernie Ecclestone was speaking to the BBC where he admitted he had not much time for Manor, the sport was too expensive but he knew what needed to be done. He also said he'd step away from the sport if that's what meant Audi would enter. It's said VW-Audi board chairman Ferdinand Piech has such disdain for Bernie he won't let any of their brands compete while he is involved in Formula 1. 

Over the weekend he also commented that we might lose the Italian Grand Prix and was again advocating a return to the redundant V8 engines. To me the only sensible thing he said was he'd leave if it meant Audi would enter the sport. Otherwise he again just comes across as out of touch. I don't think he has the power to do what he wants anymore, a lot of that is to do with CVC, the private equity firm Ecclestone himself sold the commercial rights to. He did a lot to build up the sport, but it's in an unfit state now. Time for someone to come in with a giant broom.

The title chase


Is there a title chase? I'm not so sure, at the moment there is definitely a title parade as current world champion Lewis Hamilton demonstrates his brilliance to the world. 

Rosberg may lie second in the points but he is already 27 points behind and hasn't beaten Hamilton all year and not really looked like coming close to it either.

One point further back is Sebastian Vettel who didn't have a great race, but if you were going to pick someone to give Lewis a run for his money, you'd go with the Ferrari driver. Even he though might have to share out the big points on occasion as Kimi Raikkonen continues to rediscover his mojo. 

Ferrari are not far behind, but although Kimi has promised there's more to come, it won't be as if Mercedes are standing still. They do still have an edge despite the Scuderia's step up this year.

As we are only on the fourth race of the season it is quite legitimate to say we still have a fight on our hands, but for how much longer will we have to pretend that is the case? One of Rosberg, Vettel or Kimi need to show Lewis they are a proper contender, starting at the next race and preferably by all three if this isn't going to turn into a cruise as Hamilton seeks his third title.

Result

1. Hamilton - Mercedes
2. Raikkonen - Ferrari
3. Rosberg - Mercedes
4. Bottas - Williams
5. Vettel - Ferrari
6. Ricciardo - Red Bull
7. Grosjean - Lotus
8. Perez - Force India
9. Kvyat - Red Bull
10. Massa - Williams
11. Alonso - McLaren
12. Nasr - Sauber
13. Hulkenberg - Force India
14. Ericsson - Sauber
15. Maldonado - Lotus
16. Stevens - Marussia
17. Merhi - Marussia
R. Verstappen - Toro Rosso
R. Sainz - Toro Rosso
DNS. Button - McLaren

all photo's taken from autosport.com

Thursday 16 April 2015

The Bahrain Grand Prix Forecast


Round 4 - Bahrain International Circuit

Laps - 57

Pirelli Compounds - Medium and soft tyres are available to the teams this weekend. According to Pirelli with temperatures likely to be higher than in China last weekend we could see tyres degrading a bit quicker, although this is tempered by the fact this is now an evening race.

DRS zones - There'll be two DRS zones, one along the start finish straight with the other between turns 10 and 11.

Weather - It's Bahrain, it's going to be hot! Even when the sun's gone to bed temperatures will still not dip below 26C.

TV - Live on Skysports F1 and BBC (lights out at 4pm)

Pick a winner - I've played it safe so far this year, tipping Lewis Hamilton to win at all three races. It's not a bad way to go, he's won two of those three and finished second in the other to Ferrari's Sebastian Vettel. But I'm going to go a different way this weekend and side with a second scarlet victory, but this time for Kimi Raikkonen. He's shown he's got the pace in this car, with a clean weekend it's time he proved the Scuderia have two top drivers. Despite the cooler evening conditions, it's still hot and this could play into Ferrari's hands.

Hot Topics:

A lot of people will be talking about Nico Rosberg's state of mind. He's had a tough start to the season and last weeks outburst about Lewis Hamilton backing him up into the Ferrari's just oozed paranoia. It can't be a good place to be knowing that your team mate is simply faster than you. Rosberg knows he's going to have to be clever if he wants to win this world championship but coming across as petulant and claiming your team mate is driving too slowly as you sit several seconds behind doesn't look good. A win will sort him out, but will it come this weekend? He was quicker than Hamilton here last year but lost out in a tough wheel to wheel confrontation. I don't think he'll be quicker this time.

McLaren about to unleash some performance. They believe they're getting a handle on the reliability side of the car after both cars finished in China, now they are looking to turn everything up, perhaps not quite to eleven but more than a few notches above not very much. They have some aerodynamic updates coming for Bahrain but there should be big upgrades ready for the first European race in Spain. Progress this weekend is if they have more than just the Manor's behind them in qualifying and maybe a point from the race. It'll be interesting to see if there really is as much potential in this car as the team seem to think.

Renault and Red Bull are still talking about quitting. There were several engine problems for Red Bull and Toro Rosso last weekend. Renault say they will be bringing a new specification power unit soon with more power. If that doesn't launch Red Bull into the battle for podiums this topic will run for a while yet.

Meanwhile ex Renault supplied team Lotus, now quite happily shacking up with Mercedes claim they have the fourth fastest car. That's not an unreasonable claim to make especially as Romain Grosjean got the team some points last time out with a comfortable seventh place behind the Mercedes', Ferrari's and Williams'. I think Pastor Maldonado will need to score some points soon too and have a run of races without getting involved in any incidents, otherwise Lotus may just go looking for someone else's money.

Max Verstappen. He's started his season well, he drove brilliantly in China. He's just generally a driver everyone is talking about. There will be a major result before the season is out.

Predicting the headlines:

Kimi Raikkonen triumphs for first time since 2013

What does Rosberg have to do to beat Hamilton?

Verstappen scores more points

Red Bull in trouble, threaten to quit

McLaren to score a point (if I keep saying it, I'll be right at some point).

Under the radar:

As Verstappen continues to shine it's worth pointing out what a decent job the other rookies are doing. His Toro Rosso team mate Carlos Sainz has scored points in the opening two rounds while Sauber's Felipe Nasr has scored points in two out of three races. Even Will Stevens has impressed. Despite being with Manor and having a pay driver tag, he has out performed his team mate and sometimes by a significant margin. That's all you can ask for when your car is so far off the pace. Anyway, here's to the other rookies, let them not be washed away by the wave of hype surrounding Verstappen. It'll be difficult, because that hype seems completely justified.

The title chase:

Sebastian Vettel and Nico Rosberg sit 13 and 17 points behind Lewis Hamilton respectively. What's significant about this is that it's not Lewis' team mate that's his main challenger.

No one expected Ferrari to be a significant threat this season, perhaps they won't be in the end, but at least for now they're keeping Mercedes honest on race day. But for as long as Vettel is ahead of Rosberg in the points they or rather he will be perceived as the main threat to Hamilton and Mercedes securing another championship.

This means Rosberg will very gently be pushed into a supporting role. Last year Mercedes were far ahead, but not this year, at least for now they have a fight. And if it's Hamilton vs Vettel then the team will gravitate towards a Hamilton title push rather than Rosberg.

It's already happening because Hamilton is making Rosberg look a bit average at the moment, in fact he's dominating him. The longer this goes on the more the team will become focused on Lewis no matter what they say about equal treatment. It's natural you will focus on the driver who will give you the best opportunity to win.

All in all it simply means Rosberg has to beat Hamilton this weekend. He doesn't have to win, just beat Lewis. In the form the #44 Mercedes is in, that's far easier said than done.

all photos taken from autosport.com

Sunday 12 April 2015

Hamilton takes back control



The Chinese Grand Prix wasn't great but it has delivered a lot of potential ructions for the future. I confess I've not actually seen the race, but I did hear it on the way to the World Endurance Championship taking place at Silverstone today. A lot of focus on radio goes on the leaders which is fair enough, but it does give you a harder time when trying to decipher where the best battles were although there were some obvious moments. Anyway, a truncated discussion of the Chinese race now follows.

Star of the race

Max Verstappen is delivering on the hype that's surrounded him since he was announced as the youngest ever Formula 1 driver last year. After starting down in 13th he put in an assured and confident performance with late braking moves on Sauber's Marcus Ericsson and Force India's Sergio Perez into the hairpin combined with a good strategy. Unfortunately his race went up in smoke a couple of laps from the end. At only 17 he's still learning his craft and that's got to make the drivers at the top take notice.

The winner

Lewis Hamilton dominated the Chinese race, a perfect riposte to Ferrari's unexpected Malaysian win two weeks ago. He pretty much led from start to finish with only his team mate Nico Rosberg and Kimi Raikkonen taking a few laps from him during the pit stops.

He started as he meant to go on. He lined up the car from pole position at such an angle towards the inside of the track that there was no doubting his intentions to want to block any attempt by Rosberg to get by. Either that or he just over shot with a final warming up of the tyres.

Lewis got away well and from then on just managed the gap. A lot is said about Lewis' aggressive nature in racing, but he's one of the best at just ticking off the laps as he takes control of the race. So in control was he that Rosberg thought his Mercedes team mate was backing him up into the Ferrari's.

Ah yes the Prancing Horse might not have galloped quite as strongly as it did in Malaysia but it was most certainly there, both of them this time with Sebastian Vettel tailing Rosberg for most of it, before Kimi Raikkonen gave him something to think about towards the end of the race. The Ferrari's served notice that they are at least going to make a race of it this year.

It certainly rattled Rosberg, because as Lewis continued on his serene way, just making sure everything was ok with his car and cruising it home to the finish, Nico was coming under attack from Vettel, especially with the undercut at pit stops. This is what the number 6 Mercedes felt was compromising his own strategy. He believed Lewis was doing this deliberately, something that has been denied.

Whatever, it didn't bother Lewis and he came home for his 35th career victory. Rosberg was second, with Vettel and Kimi lurking not far behind. I think we'll see a lot more silver and red battles as we go through the year.

The battles

Which brings me nicely on to some of the other highlighted battles of the day.

The Mercedes and Ferrari fight was one of strategy. Verstappen's moves were of controlled opportunism. Daniel Ricciardo was one to watch as he fell down the field after a terrible start from seventh on the grid. He made few moves which just didn't come off, in fact he seemed far less in command of the car than he has been, particularly compared to last year.

Perhaps his brilliant 2014 has made his expectations higher, I don't think he was predicting that in 2015 he'd be fighting for the lower reaches of the top ten and this has made his driving slightly off so far this year. Nevertheless, he came back through the field to eventually reward himself with ninth.

The main headline grabbing battle has to be that of the chase McLaren's Jenson Button gave to Pastor Maldonado. It was a little bit epic and always tense, you never know what Maldonado might do after all! As these two scrapped, Fernando Alonso on faster tyres was catching his team mate quickly, as the three were joined Button made his move and clattered into the back of Pastor at turn one, not his fault this time. It earned the Brit a five second penalty and points on his license. 

Alonso moved through and gladly took the places. He had reached the dizzying heights of 13th. You see, there's action all the way down the field in Formula 1. Maldonado was out, but Button continued to 15th. It might not seem like it but McLaren are getting closer. They may have dropped out of qualifying in the first round again, but they are racing and not just with themselves. I think once we reach round five in Spain they'll be on the edge of the points.

Things of note

To me this result confirmed that Ferrari will be a factor at most races this year. They were still there at the end of the race despite Mercedes pace advantage. Which leads me to make this bold statement. Kimi will be back on the podium soon, and might even sneak a win. He can be relentless when given a chance of victory. He's certainly not lost his racers edge, his opening lap confirmed this as he took both Williams cars to rise from sixth to fourth. 

While Ferrari are edging closer to the front, the Williams cars, the closest challengers to Mercedes on pace last year are not in contention. They may not have been all that far behind today with fifth for Felipe Massa and sixth for Valtteri Bottas, but a threat for victory? I think not. It's such a shame for one of the nicest looking cars around and a great team. They've got plenty of time to try and extract more pace though. 

At least they're better off than Red Bull, as Ricciardo struggled to the points Kvyat had a miserable afternoon retiring with engine failure. The team and Renault really need to raise their game before all these threats of withdrawing from the sport are too hard to say no to.

Sauber are still making hay while other teams struggle. An eighth and a tenth for Felipe Nasr and Marcus Ericsson respectively is another strong result. It just goes to show that Ferrari's improved power unit has not only helped their own team but helped push their customer back into points paying contention.

Points are also what Lotus have as well. Romain Grosjean crossed the line in seventh. A strong showing that earned the team points they should have had already. As Grosjean impressed, Maldonado was heading for escape roads in the pit lane. He may not have been to blame for his accident today, but even with video evidence you're still thinking but he must have done something ...

Both Manor Marussia's finished as well. Which is nice.

The title chase

So Hamilton now leads the title chase by 13 points from Sebastian Vettel. Rosberg is a further four behind. 

Hamilton is looking confident, composed, has all the answers. Vettel is the underdog and believes there are more wins to come and has no doubts that he should aim for the championship if he can.

Rosberg is whining and looking for excuses. I like Rosberg he's a good driver, but he needed to put one over on Hamilton this weekend and he didn't. He nearly matched him in qualifying, he possibly could have had a go at the win too, but he didn't. In fact he was more concerned about the Ferrari's.

I think Hamilton has got Rosberg mentally beaten already. Bahrain is just a week away, with high temperatures expected, could this be another race that might be Ferrari's for the taking? And if it is, will Mercedes starting having just tiny tiny thoughts, that perhaps this year Hamilton's challenger won't be Rosberg at all, it'll be Vettel. If there's anyone at all...

all photo's taken from autosport.com

Thursday 9 April 2015

The Chinese Grand Prix Forecast

Round 3 - China, Shanghai International Circuit

Laps - 56

Pirelli compounds - Medium and soft. With lower temperatures than Malaysia a fortnight ago, will Ferrari be able to use their gentle caress on the tyres to the same effect? Pirelli predict an easy two stopper.

DRS Zones - Two, on the start finish straight and between turns 13 and 14.

Weather - Looks to be a dry weekend with maximum temperatures of 22C, but it is meant to be cloudy rather than full on beaming sunshine.

TV - Live on Skysports F1 with highlights on the BBC (UK 7am lights out)

Pick a winner - Despite the recent Ferrari victory taken by Sebastian Vettel, it remains to be seen whether they can do it again, on this basis I'm going with a Lewis Hamilton victory to reassert his dominance.

Hot Topics:

Continuing on the who will take the win theme, can Ferrari do it again? I don't think we should expect Ferrari to suddenly be Mercedes challengers all the time. Last time out in Malaysia it was a equal fight and the silver cars were beaten fair and square but the high temperatures played into the hands of Ferrari which seemed to be able to manage their tyres better while Mercedes in their bid for ever more down force have engineered higher rear tyre degradation into their car.

However, like in Australia, China will have cooler temperatures so could we see a return to the Mercedes dominance? As with any good experiment we need more evidence and I think we'll have to wait a couple more races yet to see if Ferrari are really going to make a fight of this all year.

Lewis Hamilton meanwhile has said Ferrari's win has been blown out of proportion and that it wasn't a disaster for Mercedes to lose. This might be so, but it did highlight how not used to being challenged Mercedes had got as they made muddled radio communications and seemed to lose their way on strategy due to the pressure from Ferrari. It's going to be exciting to see what will happen if they come under attack again.

Red Bull owner Dietrich Mateschitz has claimed his team will quit if they don't become more competitive. Engine supplier Renault have also alluded to withdrawing if their competitive state doesn't change. Perhaps if they both stopped having a go at each other and worked harder instead of name calling over regulations they all agreed to, they might end up getting somewhere. It just smacks of the big bully in the playground finally getting their comeuppance and going to cry in the corner. At the moment Red Bull is less likely to give you wings and more likely to make you whine like a ...

Bernie Ecclestone is sharing more epically bad ideas, chief of which was a all women's Formula 1 championship. Of course the cars wouldn't be as quick, and the the grid would be made up of a bunch of nobodies who've achieved nothing note worthy. It's an insulting concept. One day there will be a woman who will turn the tide and be successful at the top Formula, and on that day she'll have truly achieved something brilliant. Winning in a women only Formula 1 is to achieve nothing, there just isn't the depth of talent at the moment. He also brought up bringing double points back again, so we know Bernie can't have been thinking right as that idea was rightly shelved after uproar at its addition last year.

Nico Rosberg's title bid. I think already it's being talked about a lot. Refer to the title chase section below for more, because it's not going well and it needs to change quickly.

Predicting the headlines:

Kimi Raikkonen to show his potential with a good weekend for Ferrari.

Ferrari to maintain their victory challenging pace or Mercedes to blow them away. I think it's pretty black and white on that.

Rosberg has lost his way.

Manor to get both cars to the end.
Ricciardo to bring some joy for Red Bull.

Lotus get in the points with Grosjean.

Lotus have an accident with Maldonado.

McLaren to show further improvements.

Force India to get left behind.

Toro Rosso rookies continue to impress.

Under the radar:

We'll leave the money issues that will potentially destroy our favourite sport well alone this week. It's fairly obvious what should happen, but will they learn, no no, don't be silly. On the plus side Toro Rosso boss Franz Tost recognised that teams should help Grand Prix promote their races.

McLaren-Honda are still very optimistic for a team who've competed in two Grand Prix this year and recorded one non start, two retirements and a last placed finish. It says a lot about the joy Jenson Button expressed on the team radio when he realised he was catching cars in Malaysia. The long straight in China will hurt their down on power engine but watch out for them. They're going to spring a surprise sooner rather than later.

The title chase: 

It's going to take a few races to really get a handle on what might happen during the season and who other than Mercedes will be the main players but after Malaysia I think it's safe to say we might have a challenge from Ferrari. This coming race will give us more data to see if Sebastian Vettel or Kimi Raikkonen can be year long challengers. They seem pretty confident they can at least get a few more wins, and wins equal points, enough of those and you got something going on.

For now we have to assume it's still going to be between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg. Hamilton we know has started well, he's got two pole positions, a win and a second place. More importantly in the title chase, he's crushed Nico Rosberg.

Rosberg was meant to come into 2015 with all guns blazing, but he's been rather tepid. He's made mistakes, come up short on pace and really not looked like the driver who ran Hamilton so close last year. His whole demeanour is of a man who knows he's up against a brilliant talent that he just can't live with anymore.

He's even been saying things like it's good if Vettel can interfere with the title battle as it might help him. Why say something like that? It's like he's already saying he can't beat Hamilton on his own and he's going to need a piggy back. He's in real danger of falling into a support role. Never mind about Vettel helping him, if the Ferrari drivers do get involved in the action, it's more likely they'll rule him out of the title race completely. He needs a win this weekend, I don't think anything else will do. At the very least he must beat Lewis.

all photo's taken from autosport.com