A shocking announcement to wake up to as qualifying for the Japanese Grand Prix got underway. Nico Rosberg took pole position ahead of Lewis Hamilton to set up another enticeing battle in the championship fight but all talk was for the driver movements affecting 2015.
Vettel's decision to leave comes as a complete surprise. Not so much that he's leaving Red Bull but how soon it is to happen. Although not confirmed by Ferrari it is almost certain that's where he's off to, but why?
Well Red Bull haven't been as good this year, Technical director Adrian Newey is going to step back, he's been taking a beating from Daniel Ricciardo and perhaps he wants to prove to the doubters that he can win in another team as many still seem to think he only won because he was in the best car. It's sound reasoning therefore that he would want to take up a new challenge and get Ferrari back to the top.
Although if Alonso can't win with them and they're in a worse state than ever it seems a curious decision. It's no secret Vettel has struggled to adapt to these new cars this year, I'd have thought stick with what you know and see how Ferrari get on next year, meanwhile do your best to get one over on Ricciardo.
But what if Ricciardo continued to beat him next year? Vettel's market value would diminish and potentially he could be left with fewer options about where to go. There's so many permutations to this it could be assessed forever. In the end it's probably a wise decision as Ferrari will of course one day get it right again, but how soon? And as one F1 journalist tweeted today, if Vettel struggles with them will they be left reflecting on how Alonso would be doing, or worse how Ricciardo would have done?
One thing we know for sure is that Alonso can drive round a bad car, but Vettel seems to need things more suited to him, it's going to be fascinating to see how this pans out. There's so much more to this situation as well, what of Kimi Raikkonen? Will he stay after such a miserable season. Vettel and Kimi are two drivers who have openly admitted they've struggled to adapt to these new turbo cars, is this what Ferrari want to lead them? Meanwhile this looks like it certainly means Alonso is on his way.
With all the management changes going on at Ferrari and the relationship between driver and team on the critical list at least since last year when Alonso criticised the team, it was inevitable that he would leave but I think most people thought it would come next year.
After the catastropic 2007 campaign he had with McLaren no one would have thought he'd end up back there but negotiations are on-going and it'll no longer be a surprise to see him end up back there. Ron Dennis wants the best drivers, and like at Ferrari there's been a lot of restructuring in the management and in the technical departments, so perhaps both team and Alonso are putting the past behind them to look to a brighter future.
More importantly though Honda want a big name driver, McLaren's new engine partner for 2015. They have long since targeted Alonso and I think whether Ron liked it or not, they were going to get their way as they aim to re-start their latest stint in F1 in a positive fashion. Honda will spend what they need to secure wins and like Ferrari it is inevitable that they will get it right again one day. But how soon?
Alonso is desperate for a third title and after five years of trying at Ferrari, they've not been able to make it work. We know he has a reputation for sometimes putting teams on edge, but for so long they seemed very much in love, how can this relationship have fallen apart so dramatically? Maybe he was demanding too much, maybe the new management at Ferrari had had enough of him looking for other options or were tired of everyone believing Alonso was carrying the team (which to be fair, he has been). Whatever it is, it's not a harmonious departure.
On that note how long can Alonso suffer another team in flux? It'll take a while for Honda and McLaren to get it right, perhaps he might take a year out, perhaps we're about to get another bombshell regarding a drive at Mercedes. Who knows? Alonso seems quite relaxed and happy and says he knows, so thats who.
If Alonso is to go to McLaren I would think it'll be at the expense of Jenson Button. I think after the investment they've put into Kevin Magnussen who is at the start of his career they'll decide to stick with the Dane. But Button would raise his game considerably up against Alonso, like he did with Hamilton so it could be argued they should stick with him and give Magnussen a year out?
Unfortunately for Jenson that scenario is unlikely and it looks like it could be his last year in Formula 1 because as a former world champion do you really want to race for say Force India? Probably not. It would be a sad way to end, but nothing is confirmed yet.
Arguably it could be said that Vettel and Alonso are swapping their current seats for potentially worse seats, at least in the current situation, so you have to say that Kvyat's move from Toro Rosso to Red Bull is the really big winner in the driver moves.
What an opportunity for the young Russian driver after only one year in the junior team to be promoted to the four time champions. He has to believe Renault are going to make a huge improvement on the power unit and Red Bull will still have a car which will have been predominantly overseen by Adrian Newey despite him stepping back, at least for 2015.
He has been mostly hugely impressive this year and you could say looked better against his team mate Jean-Eric Vergne than even Ricciardo did last year, especially when you consider it's his rookie campaign. It could be quite a close battle at Red Bull next year and I don't think you can say their driver line up looks less despite the loss of a four time champion because quite simply Ricciardo has been brilliant and is a star in his own right while Kvyat looks a worthy addition for the reasons I've just given. Potentially if you look at the comparisons between drivers at Red Bull and Toro Rosso, then he could be in line to be the first Russian world champion in Formula 1. You got to say that it is not an unlikely scenario.
Vergne is rightly annoyed too that he was looked over. But it was never going to be him moving to Red Bull when Max Verstappen was announced for Toro Rosso. He's matched the 2015 Red Bull line-up, he deserves a seat but like Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguersuari before him, the Red Bull young driver program is ruthless.
It's also been rumoured Nico Hulkenberg might be off to sports cars which would be a great shame as he has deserved a seat in a top team for years but it seems he will be continued to be overlooked and admittedly he hasn't been quite as on it this year, perhaps for this reason. Force India say he is under contract for 2015.
A roller coaster of a Saturday morning and so many different scenarios, reasons and arguments that can be presented for all this situations. It's fascinating and there's probably a few more shocks to come in this crazy world of F1.
all photos taken from autosport.com
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