Thursday 18 September 2014

The Singapore Grand Prix Forecast


Singapore holds the original night race and the longest race of the year at a time of nearly two hours. As the teams and drivers try to stay on European time its energy sapping track and temperature makes this an event when the drivers know they’ve had to work hard all afternoon, well night.

It’s a long circuit with 23 corners and not much time to take a breather. It has several big stops and in general a lot of them so it means brakes take a pounding. Mercedes have had several issues with brakes this year so watch out for them.

There are two DRS zones, one on the start finish straight and one between turns 5 and 7 which includes the anonymous turn 6. Pirelli are bringing their soft and super soft tyres although the forecast is high temperatures approaching 30C and rain is in the air. Rain is often predicted for this event but never seems to materialise during the race, could this be the year? It would certainly throw up an interesting variable under the lights.

It would also increase the likelihood of a safety car at a track which generally has a high probability of one, a track surrounded by concrete walls is always going to attract incidents, just ask Daniel Ricciardo who offended the walls last year when he drove for Toro Rosso. One more thing to add about this race is the banning of team radio regarding messages that help the drivers drive. All assistance about brake bias, where a rival is quicker (particularly your team mate) what sector or corner you could be doing better at is banned while driving the car. It’s going to be interesting to see how this is policed, if and when the teams get round it and will it affect any of the drivers?

So we’re on to round 14, five to go after this one and the Mercedes battle for the title continues as tensions continue to rise inside the team. Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg can often be heard asking for advice from the team. Will the radio ban hurt one of them more than the other?

I read something interesting on autosport.com where their technical writer and former Jordan technical director Gary Anderson said that Rosberg would likely have done his homework whereas Lewis might be a bit lost despite his natural talent being the greater and so able to drive round problems. I’m looking forward to seeing how this plays out.

As for the track I think Rosberg could well have the edge this weekend. He’s always been fast around Singapore and potentially should have won the race for Williams several years ago. Hamilton has won before but was slower than Rosberg last year, so it could be advantage Nico? That of course doesn’t take into account the psychological blow Lewis dealt out in Italy?

He controlled that weekend, getting a brilliant pole position and pressuring Rosberg into a mistake as he recovered from a software afflicted start to challenge his team mate for the lead. It was one of his most accomplished performances of the year and Nico looked a little bit rattled by it. But he can recover. There’s a lot of things to hit around the Marina Bay street circuit, not a lot of run off, I’m sure their Mercedes team are going to be on edge throughout, especially when the lights go out.

I think we could be seeing a challenge though which might not have the Silver Arrow squad getting everything their own way. I think Williams will have to concede their main challenger position to Red Bull this race. They always go well here and Sebastian Vettel utterly dominated last year. He’s got a brand new chassis this weekend as the team try to get him the improved race pace that he’s found in qualifying.

It’s an interesting competition between Vettel and Ricciardo. Ricciardo has pretty much got best of the rest position sewn up but Vettel will be desperate to at least get a win. He’s been out-qualifying Ricciardo more often than not in recent races but still getting beaten when it matters. It’s obvious the car is not suiting Vettel at all, but he is making progress and he’ll be determined to finally beat Ricciardo.

With engine power not being a main feature, Red Bull’s deficit suddenly becomes a lot less. Their chassis is at least second best if not the best so will work well around here. I think they can be challengers and possibly get in the way of the Mercedes title battle. If Vettel can’t be the lead Red Bull though, then I’m not sure he’ll ever be, at least for this year.

Williams and Ferrari are locked in battle for third in the constructors. I think they’ll both be fighting for a high of fifth this weekend. After the dismal Italian Grand Prix suffered by Ferrari, Luca di Montezemolo resigned as chairman of Ferrari. He is to be replaced by Sergio Marchionne, Fiat’s CEO. Ferrari are in a crisis, after their super team of the Schumacher era was broken up he promoted from within and the Italian blame culture arose once more to such an extent that it really has only been Fernando Alonso who has made them look even vaguely respectable.

Even he has been at pains to deliver podiums this year. Team Boss Marco Mattiacci has recognised this and is making changes, but it can’t help them this year and might not be much help for next either which might lose them their most prized asset, Alonso. Anyway, Singapore might be better for Ferrari as power isn’t everything here. With the stop start nature of the track fuel consumption might be an issue, which means Ferrari will be in trouble. If it’s not one thing it’s another for the Scuderia.

Despite Williams not having the best downforce they’ve made a lot of progress over the year and are still bringing updates. Valtteri Bottas is a driver that will get you the maximum result while Felipe Massa should have been a winner here in 2008 and will be buoyed by his Italian podium, so look out for the Williams cars, they could spring a surprise.

McLaren will hope that Kevin Magnussen keeps up his recent good performances, but this time not attract a penalty. It’s a bit tight around here to be squeezing too many drivers off the track. Jenson Button will be looking to beat Magnussen on the road this time rather than relying on a penalty to get ahead.

Force India have looked off the pace recently, bizarrely this has let Sergio Perez rise up to prominence in the team while Nico Hulkenberg, the once superstar of the future has looked strangely off the pace. Hulkenberg needs to rectify this if his start is not to wane.

Daniil Kvyat was brilliant in Italy and I’m sure he’ll hustle the car this weekend to get near the top 10 and maybe sneak a point if his rookie status doesn’t let the walls take a bite out of him. Jean-Eric Vergne needs to start lighting up the time sheets soon if he’s to maintain his Formula 1 career.

Sauber and Lotus, well I can’t see them progressing much here. Even when other teams power advantage may be negated, when you’re missing huge chunks of downforce you’re not going to do much in Singapore. They’ll be hoping for a safety car to mix things up. Caterham have kept on Kamui Kobayashi once again as they battle with the Marussia’s.


So if I were to predict a winner? For the championship, you have to hope it’s a Hamilton win but I’ve got a feeling Rosberg may have the edge this weekend. As an outside bet, go with Vettel. It’s going to be a hot, long race under the lights of Singapore. Who does win could be crucial to this year’s title battle.

all photos taken from autosport.com

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