Chinese Forecast

Round 4 of the Formula 1 world championship is the Chinese Grand Prix at the Shanghai International Circuit. It could be another rain effected weekend as the current forecast shows that qualifying may be wet for the third time in four races.

Not that that will change the outcome too much anyway. Let’s face it the likelihood is a Mercedes on pole position and then very possibly a win too. Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton have both won here before and as shown by the rate they pulled away in Bahrain after the safety car at up to three seconds per lap they have plenty in hand to ward off a challenge at the moment.

Rain has often shaken up a Chinese Grand Prix so the soft and medium tyres that Pirelli have brought may not be used as much as the intermediate or wet tyres. Saturday does look slippery but Sunday is also cloudy so you never know if a shower may burst out.

China is quite a technical track with the first two sectors full of corners some of which are particularly long helping teams such as Red Bull who once again have a very tidy aerodynamic package which will help them make up the deficit their Renault power unit has to the Mercedes.

Of course this is rather neutered by the 1.17km straight in sector three where they will lose a bunch of time, but it could mean that Red Bull take advantage in the first two sectors to be still fairly close in overall lap time. I would think that they will be the main challengers to Mercedes this weekend.

There are once again two DRS zones, one on that back straight and the other on the start finish straight which should make overtaking particularly easy this weekend for those out of position and needing to pass slower cars in a hurry.

At the front you cannot look past the Mercedes duo for the fight for victory, but I do think Red Bull will be slightly closer, although in the battle for the win I don’t think so. Red Bull will want at least a podium weekend especially since their appeal to get Daniel Ricciardo’s second place from the Australian Grand Prix back ended in disappointment.

Basically the way I see it is that the FIA approved fuel flow sensors are new technology and are not perfected yet. It seems like Red Bull did not think it was working properly so used their own back up and ignored the FIA’s instructions during the race.

Red Bull probably did not exceed the maximum fuel flow rate but to reinstate them would open a can of worms as other teams which did follow FIA directives despite their own misgivings about the fuel flow sensors could kick up a fuss and just use their own technology which would not always be FIA approved.

I think it probably turned out better this way although if it was proved the fuel flow had not been exceeded I’d have given Ricciardo his points back and docked the team theirs. Whatever though it’s going to be an interesting weekend for Red Bull as they fight their way back to the front. Sebastian Vettel and Ricciardo look to have a nice simmering rivalry going on and in a way Ricciardo has been the main pace setter for the team so far this season as Vettel has been afflicted by problems.

In fact I’d love to see a continuation from the Bahrain race of the intra-team fighting that was going on throughout the field, particularly in Mercedes, Red Bull, Force India and Williams. It was spectacular, forceful but clean fighting.

Ferrari too looked like they had Kimi Raikkonen finally giving Fernando Alonso a run for his money. 

It’s been an interesting week for the team as much liked team boss Stefano Domenicali resigned after another poor start to a season for the team. He’s replaced by Ferrari’s north American director Marco Mattiacci. He has not been involved in the F1 world but Ferrari president Luca di Montezemolo said he wanted a Ferrari man. He’s also said he will be more involved in the F1 operation.

I’m not sure how welcome that will be by the wider F1 community as he is still complaining about the direction the sport is taking. The way I see it this fuel efficiency Formula is not much different from what we’ve had before. They’ve always had to look after things and in the 1980s often ran out of fuel too as they hadn’t saved enough and that’s looked at as some of the glory years.

It looked to me at the last race that the cars were running fairly flat out a lot of the time, even the tyres aren’t as critical too so they can push that little bit more. Formula 1 had to change otherwise they’d have lost Renault, Mercedes and Honda wouldn’t be coming back next year.

The only thing is, and which they’re working on, is a way of making the engines louder. Although I like the low thundering sound and the whine of the turbo and energy recovery systems but yes, it could do with being a few decibels louder especially as that is a great part of seeing the cars live.

Anyway another race like Bahrain soon and the critics will have to shut up. Any change to the regulations wouldn’t be fair. Ferrari have suggested giving more fuel etc or increasing the fuel flow rate but that’s pointless. Mercedes can work to these regs fine, it’s up to the other teams to get on with it and compete not moan that the regulations which have been known for two years now are not fair. Do a better job!

Anyway, as regards the race, Rosberg will definitely want to fight back but I think for most races Lewis will have the edge. Even when Nico was quicker in Bahrain he couldn’t beat his team mate but it should still make for some thrilling racing as he tries to topple Hamilton, although he is still championship leader. Red Bull will establish themselves in second with another podium while the other Mercedes runners will be making up the top 10.

Nico Hulkenberg will want to get a podium soon after Sergio Perez’s third while Williams really need to take advantage of their obvious pace while managing their tyres better. McLaren will hope they start making progress as since Australia they look to have slipped back despite Jenson Button saying they have made progress. Time for him and Kevin Magnussen to prove it.

I hope he shines again soon as since Australia he hasn’t shown such spectacular form against Button. In fact of the rookies it’s Daniil Kvyat for Toro Rosso that’s really impressing.  Where does this leave Ferrari? They’ll be up there in the top 10 but it’s going to take quite some time before they win again. Anyway with the fights that should be going on in teams and between teams, it’s going to make for another exciting Grand Prix.

all photo's from autosport.com