This season is the most anticipated in years. We all know by
now the major changes affecting this year’s competition with 1.6 litre turbo
power units with a 160bhp kick provided by two energy recovery systems, one
through kinetic energy and one through heat.
Aerodynamic changes have rid us of exhaust blown diffusers
while also providing us with funny nosecones which are variously shaped like
animals and other appendages. We’ve got a guarantee that in Q3 all drivers will
participate as an extra set of tyres will be provided and I’m looking forward
to the return of the Austrian Grand Prix which even with the updated track
provided entertaining racing while Russia makes its debut with a circuit which
winds its way around the winter Olympic park in Sochi.
So how are our teams and drivers stacking up so far? You
can’t really make too many certain guesses from testing, but if anything, with
so many changes afoot the teams couldn’t really afford not to show their hand a
little bit as they sought to make sure their cars were in working order.
Even after three four day tests there are still many teams
which haven’t run a race simulation, some haven’t even managed a qualifying sim
either. Worse still, some can barely manage to complete a lap without their car
suffering from some kind of problem. Even now, Renault who supply four teams
this year haven’t run their new power unit at full revs.
This is just the beginning though, things in Formula 1 can
change very quickly and often do. Here are ten things to look out for as the season
progresses.
1.Is this Rosberg’s
year?
Mercedes have been by far the most impressive since testing
started. They completed the most mileage whilst also setting impressive lap
times in qualifying trim but especially while doing longer runs. The rumours go
that Mercedes may actually have been one of the few teams to have kept something
in hand and could have an advantage of up to a few seconds a lap. One team
insider went so far as to say that Mercedes could lap the field in Australia.
Twice.
I’m not sure we’ll get that far, if Mercedes do have a head
start then they’ll want to be looking after their cars. They racked up the laps
but they suffered their fair share of reliability problems too, concerning for
them was that most problems reared up during the final test. Of course it’s
better it happen there than in the race. At the moment the Silver Arrows look
like they’ve already got one hand on the title so it could already be a two
horse race.
Rosberg or Hamilton then? There’s been a lot of talk that
this could be Rosberg’s year. He is being touted as someone who is able to see
the wider picture and think their way through a race which is something that will
be needed when they still have to look after the tyres but more importantly
manage the fuel. It can’t be all out attack when you’ve only got 100kg of fuel
on-board down 50kg from last year.
Rosberg has already shown he can match Hamilton for pace
most of the time, but it’s that most of the time that makes you wonder if he
can complete the job. It’s not all the time, and he can still disappear during
some races. Lewis has already rubbished talk of the new regulations not suiting
him.
Hamilton is still probably the most naturally gifted driver
in the field, but he has tended to lose focus over the last few seasons. In
2013 the car also didn’t suit him, but this year, just from the way he’s
talking I’m not sure he can be stopped, he seems confident. Lewis wants to
attack every lap, but he knows he can’t do that anymore and he’s intelligent
enough to know that he can’t just rely on his skills but has to work the race
out so he knows when to unleash his full speed.
I think the question it comes down to is this: In a head to
head race on any given day who do you think would win, Rosberg or Hamilton? I
think it’s going to be close, but you’d choose Hamilton every time and that
makes him most likely to be champion if Mercedes can keep this form up.
2.Williams and Force
India to fight for wins
If you go by testing then Williams and Force India with Mercedes
power behind them look like they’re the nearest challengers to the works team.
Williams especially did almost as much mileage and headed the times on a few
days.
Force India also managed to top the times on a few days and
both teams race pace looks consistent and strong. The only thing that might
stop them getting to the top step of the podium is Mercedes as that team do
look like they will dominate the opening exchanges this year. I fear that if
these two teams don’t capitalise on any early season advantage they might have
then the likes of Red Bull, McLaren and Lotus might well have caught them up.
However, especially in Williams case, they have a lot of new
personnel including Pat Symonds and Rob Smedley along with acquiring the
talents of Felipe Massa. I’m sure the Brazilian is going to be given a new
lease of life after being over shadowed by Alonso for the past four years.
Valtteri Bottas too looks like he will have gained a lot from his first year in
the sport and could emerge as one of the next generation of superstars although
I’ve a feeling he may well end up being shaded slightly by Massa.
The man who should have been in a top line car has stayed in
the midfield
with a return to Force India. Luckily it looks like it might have
been a great decision as Nico Hulkenberg aims to display his talents behind the
wheel in the hope of getting in with a major team. I think we’ll certainly see
his first podium this year. Sergio Perez partners him, he had his shot at the
big time with McLaren and I rather think he was treated unfairly by not being
given a second year there, but it doesn’t seem like it’s too bad a step back.
3.Ferrari in the pack
again?
Ferrari have been fairly reliable in testing, they’ve been
fairly quick too especially in qualifying. But they’ve not been outstanding,
they’ve been rather middling if truth be told. Ferrari I’m sure expected to be
in the position that Mercedes find themselves in. They’ve both gone for similar
concepts in terms of design especially with regards the nose area, but for some
reason Ferrari just haven’t stood out at all.
Rumours go that their engine is particularly thirsty at the
moment which means they’ll have to run a lot slower in the races so they can
manage the 100kg fuel limit and actually get to the end. It could be a scenario
where they qualify well and then drop off the pace fairly quickly when we get
to Sunday. For their sake I hope that’s not the case as another year with an
uncompetitive car could drive a wedge between their star driver. Well on of
their star drivers…
4.Alonso’s
frustrations to allow Kimi to shine?
Now if Ferrari are in trouble and don’t have a title worthy
car it’s going to be fascinating to see just how Fernando Alonso deals with it.
It took him four years but in 2013 he finally began to show signs that he wasn’t
best pleased with how the team were performing. If 2014 turns into a similar
scenario then we could well see some toys starting to be thrown off the horse
with the expectation that we could see the Spaniard vacate his seat.
If that happens then I expect Kimi Raikkonen to take full
advantage. Kimi cares a lot about his racing, far more than his relaxed
demeanour lets on, but if the car is bad, he’ll just get on with it and do his
best and not let his frustrations get in the way.
A lot has been made of the potential fireworks we might get
between Kimi and Alonso but I don’t see it. Kimi just wouldn’t respond and
wouldn’t care, he’s only interested in driving the car. I can imagine that
there’s far more potential friction between the team and Alonso.
They need to provide him with a car that can challenge for
victories all year if their relationship is to continue. I don’t think they’ve
provided him with that, and as the season wears on I think Alonso will not take
it well and that could allow Kimi to come through. In fact I think Kimi will
outscore Alonso this year because of it.
5.Magnussen to
pressure Button
McLaren looked great at the start of testing, but by the
third test things began to look less exciting for them. With Ron Dennis putting
a hand on the rudder again, McLaren will expect to get back to winning ways
very soon, but I’m not sure it’s going to in the too near future.
To be fair to the Woking team they ran in launch
specification throughout testing and will go to Melbourne with plenty of
upgrades so their fortunes could be substantially better than we’ve seen so
far.
One thing I’m fairly certain of is that Kevin Magnussen is
going to be a star this year. He has looked extremely impressive so far and I
think will outshine Jenson Button. Button may outscore him through experience
but I’m not certain about that, I do think though that Magnussen will almost
certainly have a speed advantage, this kid is that good. However if McLaren do
sneak a win this year, I think it’ll be Button.
6.Vettel’s toughest
test
As I wrote earlier in the year, Vettel is going to have it
tough this season. At the moment Red Bull are nowhere. The Renault power unit
isn’t working properly and hasn’t even been run at full revs, added to this is
the Red Bull is too tightly packed so doesn’t allow the engine and energy
recovery systems to breathe. Throughout testing they were hacking and sawing
holes into the body work, even then it didn’t allow the car to run for too long
most of the time.
I don’t think the team will be strong in Australia, I’ll be
surprised if they even make Q3 and potentially they might now get out of Q1.
However as regards the rest of the year I’m sure they’ll sort it out.
In 2009 when the last major overhaul of the rules took place
they were there. I have no doubt that their concept will work with refinement
and they’ll soon be battling Mercedes again like they did that year when the
silver squad were Brawn.
I think this year will see Vettel gain more credit than any
of his championship winning campaigns did, he is that good and he’ll prove it
with some battling drives. His new team mate Daniel Ricciardo will do enough to
upset the champion a few times but I don’t see him beating Vettel over an
entire year.
7.Toro Rosso to be
the leading Red Bull team
The Italian team could out perform their big sister for the
first time since 2008. They didn’t have the best of testing either but in the
early races I expect them to surprise a few people and lead the Bulls. They
were generally quicker and could go further so I think it’s a reasonable
expectation. I don’t expect it to last long though.
Jean-Eric Vergne has something to prove after missing out on
the Red Bull driver, while rookie Daniil Kvyat is reigning GP3 champion and
will want to be beat Vergne if he’s to become the next Red Bull superstar.
8.Marussia to get
some points
Honestly, I don’t think they will. I mean they had a lot
days where they hardly ran and when they did the pace wasn’t great although it
was comparable to a lot of other teams so maybe they have genuinely made a step
up. If they are to score a point they will have to do it in the first few races
before all the teams find out how to get their cars to the finish. It’ll be
Jules Bianchi to score while Max Chilton won’t, although he’ll finish a lot of
races.
9.Caterham not much
faster than a GP2 car
Kamui Kobayashi returns to Formula 1 after a year off and
unfavourably compared the pace of his new car to that of a GP2 car. To be fair
Caterham is one of the teams afflicted with the Renault engine, but it is also
the one which has run the most miles with it. So if the first races are an
attrition fest then perhaps Kamui or Marcus Ericsson can take advantage.
Team owner Tony Fernandes is threatening to close the team
if he doesn’t see a noticeable improvement, hopefully Kobayashi’s no doubt
spectacular adventures will take the heat off the team.
10.Lotus and Sauber
stuck in the midfield
It might not even just be the midfield for Lotus, they didn’t
run well and only showed occasional flashes of speed, whereas Sauber were
mostly reliable but didn’t show too many signs of decent pace.
It could be a year stuck in the doldrums with none of these
four seats filled by people you might expect to get an amazing result from
nothing, with the exception of Romain Grosjean. I hope he can maintain the
mature performances from last year even if he is stuck in the midfield. Of
these two teams I expect Lotus to make the most progress.
F1 2014 is about to start, this year is about change and I
expect the competitive order to change throughout the year as teams discover
and understand more about their new cars. It’ll be just a little bit thrilling.
all photo's from autosport.com
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