Australian Forecast

Melbourne, Australia is where we really get to see just what Formula 1 has become this year? Quieter engines, dodgy nose jobs, fuel efficiency. It’s not the kind of words you want to hear when talking about the loudest, sleekest and fastest sport in the world.

But this is what we’ve got and a lot of what's been said about the new rules is just over reaction. The engines have a low rumbling thunder quality to them and with 22 cars on track will sound awesome. There’s also the whistling and gasping of the turbo which sounds like it’s an old Group B rally car sometimes.

We’ll get used to the look of the cars, and the speed will be ramped up in no time and to be fair who cares as long as the racing is good. With a shake-up of the competitive order expected, this is going to be awesome.

Nobody really knows what’s going to be going on. I think the only thing we can say with certainty is that Mercedes will probably be on top, but will Lewis Hamilton keep his edge over Nico Rosberg or will this new racing play to Rosberg’s strengths? Where will Vettel and Red Bull be on the grid, and can they even dream of finishing? Will Magnussen be the next superstar? Will Ferrari implode with two world champions shaping up to do battle? Is Massa about to return Williams to the top? Can Hulkenberg show the top teams how good he is by sneaking an opening weekend win? And most importantly can Marussia or Caterham score?

All that and so much more to look forward to at this race and 18 others, it really is going to be quite the thrilling year of racing.

But thinking of the rest of the year is too far in the future. Let’s look at who could win this opening round. First of all Pirelli have brought the soft and medium compounds. All of Pirelli’s tyres are a bit more conservative to deal with the extra torque the new power units have, but they should still provide at least a two stop event.

The weather looks like it is getting progressively worse over the weekend. Friday is nice and dry for the opening practice sessions, Saturday is cloudy while Sunday looks like rain. I’m sure that’s the last thing any team wants although perversely it might help a few teams finish, cooler temperatures and a lower average speed might assist this new fragile machinery (Red Bull might well be doing a rain dance as we speak).

There are two DRS zones, one on the start finish straight the other between turns two and three. They aren’t long straights so passing will still be tough.

Nothing about this opening race is a foregone conclusion, reliability problems have affected all the teams but it had looked like Mercedes would walk it. But rain brings an extra element as always and so could see Mercedes fail to utilise their early season advantage.

For instance Ferrari might hope for rain to ease their fuel worries, with Kimi a winner here twice before including his first win for Ferrari in 2007, his first race for the team. What price for him to show Alonso up immediately?

Jenson Button has won three times in Australia and McLaren are a lot more competitive than last year. All the other world champions on the grid have won here before too and all are good in the wet. Wet weather is a bit of an equaliser so if it does rain it’s going to be absolutely amazing.

Otherwise if it’s a dry race, there is no form to speak of with these cars apart from testing. I expect Mercedes to head the field with Lewis shading Rosberg, I hope Williams can maintain their testing form too; they look like the closest challengers, Felipe Massa I think will get a podium with Valtteri Bottas not far behind.

Force India, McLaren and Ferrari will complete the top 10 in Q3. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a miracle from Red Bull with Sebastian Vettel and Daniel Ricciardo thrilling his home crowd by getting some points finishes.

Testing has given us a lot of expectations about how things will go, but testing never really shows the true picture, Mercedes might not have it their own way, every teams expectations are all up in the air right now, which is what makes this opening round so exciting.

There’s so many questions to be answered and we’re not far away from knowing a little bit more about how the story of 2014 will work out. Whatever happens, this year is going to be one of the most exhilarating and changeable we’ve seen for some time although one team already has a slight edge the rest won't want it to keep for long. 

all photo's taken from autosport.com