Sunday 30 March 2014

Hamilton cruises to Malaysian win

The Malaysian Grand Prix can't go down as one of the best races we've ever seen can it? 

Lewis Hamilton romped away to a dominant victory with his Mercedes team mate Nico Rosberg keeping the rest at bay to record the first silver arrows 1-2 since the 1950s.

Lewis got a good start from pole position and from then on was never really troubled. A great performance and one in which he showed that any doubts he could perform well to these new regulations were brilliant quashed. 

In fact according to the new television graphics showing fuel consumption (a nice and essential innovation for understanding the races) he had one of the best. He had to get ground back on Rosberg after not scoring points in Australia, so it was job done.

Rosberg had a bit more competition but it was really a Mercedes demonstration. Equally as impressive though was Sebastian Vettel in the Red Bull.

After all their troubles he showed his fighting qualities. He never really let Rosberg get away and more than deserved his third place finish after a fantastic front row qualifying in the wet.

No rain on race day which might have spiced up the action but Vettel showed Red Bull are quickly getting on top of their problems. This is despite another non points showing from Daniel Ricciardo.

The Australian was again impressive and had made a fantastic start to actually get in front of Vettel after starting fifth.

However, more fuel sensor troubles, a dodgy pit stop and a failing front wing meant he retired and came away with no points. His opening performances though have shown he more than deserves his place in a top team.

As there was last year, there was more team order controversy. This time it was Williams.

They will definitely have annoyed Felipe Massa by mirroring the 'faster than you' message he so controversially received in 2010 from Ferrari.

But Massa isn't taking that kind of thing it seems as he remained steadfast in his refusal to let Valtteri Bottas ahead in the closing laps. 

There had already been radio messages exchanged earlier in the race when Bottas was heard to tell the team to get Massa to get a move on.

Bottas did have the pace but couldn't get by at the end leaving them in seventh and eighth. Sixth was on the table, they'd been catching Jenson Button, but Massa probably cost Bottas and the team a shot at that. It's a shame Williams haven't been able to demonstrate their full potential yet. 

Qualifying was wet and their car seems very unsuited to the conditions so they were out of position for the race, so an extra place would have been good. It'll be a heated debrief this evening.

Hulkenberg produced another impressive drive for Force India. He had a nice scrap with Fernando Alonso on his way to fifth. 

Alonso took fourth but looks more and more disillusioned, especially as he stared into the cockpits if both Red Bull and Mercedes after the race.

He obviously expects more from Ferrari but it already looks like this will be another year lost for him as he strives for that elusive third title.

It won't have helped that Kimi Raikkonen showed the first signs that he'll be giving him a headache this year. In general Kimi looked quicker in the dry practice sessions only falling foul of the wet qualifying to line up behind Alonso.

Kimi's race was compromised by an early puncture after Kevin Magnussen hit him and it was a mission just to fight back up to 12th. I want to see a fair and equal battle between the Ferrari duo in Bahrain.

Ron Dennis said McLaren had found half a second. Well sixth for Button and ninth for Magnussen doesn't really match their double podium. They had obviously slipped back but at least for Button he got one over on Magnussen in the race after being out qualified again although the youngster did have to change his nose cone after the Kimi incident.

Daniil Kvyat in the Toro Rosso scored points again with another impressive display from the rookie.

Other impressive displays came from Caterham's Kamui Kobayashi who showed a lot of fight on his way to 13th. Better than that though was Romain Grosjean who got the troublesome Lotus to the finish after barely completing a lap in practice. Great stuff.

But nothing is more brilliant than the silver arrows. Mercedes top both championships, but even they must be thinking that Red Bull could be on level terms sooner rather than later or are they racing well within themselves? We'll find out more next week in Bahrain.

Thursday 27 March 2014

Malaysian Forecast


The Malaysian Grand Prix at the Sepang circuit near Kuala Lumpur usually produces a pretty decent race. Just look to last years multi-21 team orders fiasco from last year as an example. This year should be no exception as the teams arrive with so much still to learn about the 2014 machines they’ve created.

We still might not learn too much about the competitive order after this weekend. Malaysia is traditionally hot and humid, so it will place great stress on the cars cooling, something many of the Renault engine teams have had great trouble with in testing, particularly Red Bull.

The weather for the weekend is predicting storms throughout so it seems likely that we could be in for a topsy turvy qualifying and race, which is no doubt an exciting prospect but also disguises just which team is where when it comes to a normal dry race weekend.

The tyres Pirelli have brought are the medium and hard compounds. How much usage they’re going to get is hard to tell, it all depends on how much rain we’re going to get and at the  moment it looks like a lot of running will be done on the wet and intermediate tyres.

As is usual at most circuits these days there will be two DRS zones one on the back straight approaching the final corner and one on the start finish straight. These are unlikely to play a major role in the race should it be affected by precipitation as DRS is banned in wet conditions.

So what can we expect from the competitive order this weekend? Well a lot of teams are making bold claims about what they can achieve with many claiming Australia wasn’t a true reflection. As I’ve already said Malaysia may not provide a whole lot more information if you want the truth but McLaren for example through Ron Dennis have claimed they’ve found half a second for this race.

Can that be extrapolated for the wet conditions? It’s hard to say right now, but after a successful double podium opening weekend it’ll be interesting to see their progress. Jenson Button is great in wet conditions while new star Kevin Magnussen will be very keen to demonstrate his prowess in the wet stuff again after impressing with his rain affected qualifying performance in Melbourne.

Ferrari are well aware they need to work on the speed of their car. Fernando Alonso only just managed to get ahead of Nico Hulkenberg’s Force India last time out while Kimi Raikkonen suffered a myriad of issues mostly blaming set up problems. At least they have a reliable base to start from, although they were suffering from power issues in the race, so if all is well I expect to look far more racey this weekend.

I hope Williams can demonstrate their full performance. If Felipe Massa hadn’t have been taken out by Kamui Kobayashi’s brakeless Caterham at the first corner or Valtteri Bottas hadn’t have clunked the wall (although still recovered to sixth) then I feel sure they would have nabbed a podium fairly easily.

It’s important they do, as there should be no doubt the likes of Ferrari and McLaren will improve a great deal especially when we get back to Europe, now is the time for Williams to get the big points while the going is good.

Other teams with a lot to prove include Lotus. They’ll be happy just to get their car to the finish. They haven’t completed a race distance yet, but everyone was impressed that they managed to get two cars past half distance, which was a treat as they had barely strung five laps together. They’ve got an interesting car but I don’t expect them to show any great improvement until round five in Spain.

Marussia and Caterham look like they'll be battling at the back again after a few races of elevated position while I'm afraid Sauber look a bit slow at the moment.

One of the teams to look out I think is Force India. Nico Hulkenberg had an impressive drive (yet again) and will be looking for another top result. If it rains, look out for him and Sergio Perez (so impressive just two years ago in Malaysia). They are armed with the Mercedes power unit, so should always be one to watch over the next few race weekends.

Now we come to Red Bull. They were remarkable by getting to the end with Daniel Ricciardo’s car despite not having done a race distance before the opener. Ok, so they were disqualified for the fuel flow rate being consistently greater than the 100kg/h it should have been but they are appealing and feel confident they’ll get their points back but that’s another story.

What we can tell though is that once they iron out the reliability problems they’re once again going to be involved in the championship fight. They’ve barely tapped into the potential of this car, and after such a strong showing they’ll have been delighted. So Sebastian Vettel didn’t make it over five laps, that’s a niggle that was to be expected in many ways.

I expect a more coherent challenge from both cars, especially from Vettel as he seeks to put Ricciardo in his place after the Australian out-qualified him in Australia albeit with a down on power car. Red Bull and particularly Vettel are the ones to watch this weekend in regards to their pace and whether they can keep their Renault power unit cool enough in the extreme heat and humidity we expect.

Of course out in front we can still expect to see the silver of Mercedes leading the way. At the moment if they get far enough away in the early stages  it could  be a two horse race for the title between Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton.

As brilliant as Mercedes were in Australia they had their own problems with Hamilton retiring after only two laps. However, Rosberg went on to dominate the race. Lewis will want to assert his authority on this particular team mate battle sooner rather than later. He knows he has the edge in out and out speed, but in the races it could be a different matter, Malaysia is the time for Lewis to get a victory on the board and it’ll be game on. Even at this early stage he can’t afford to fall behind Rosberg any more especially if other teams begin to catch them…

Let's see how the engine noise continues to grow on us too. I think we'll be used to it in a few races and on TV it comes across fine. Live though it seems the feedback is it could be louder. I'm sure they'll sort something out, Formula 1 is about the spectacle and the awesomeness of the cars live. It's what everyone says if they attend a race. Ok the cars will still look great to watch, but it's the sound vibrating through your body that is the most amazing thing. That needs to be there.


So in short Mercedes will lead, McLaren and Williams will challenge them, Ferrari will disappoint and make Fernando annoyed, Hulkenberg will offer us a surprise while Red Bull I’m sure are about to make Mercedes wonder whether they really do have the best car. It’s going to be an exciting weekend of racing.

all photo's taken from autosport.com

Sunday 16 March 2014

Nico Rosberg unbeatable in Oz opener


We've been waiting since November to see this new generation of cars. Four months since Brazil, the Australian Grand Prix at Albert Park, Melbourne brought Formula 1 into a new era, one where you can hear the tyres squeal over the engine noise, where fuel management is key and fuel flow rates should be monitored at all times to prevent disqualification.

The Brake-by-wire system which feeds the Kinetic energy recovery is cause for concern for a lot of teams too which resulted in Kamui Kobayashi’s Caterham slamming into the back of a rather annoyed Felipe Massa who was making his debut for Williams and thought he had a shot at a podium.

There was a safety car brought out for the other Williams of Valtteri Bottas, which continued despite clouting the wall but did leave some debris on the racing line. A threat of rain hung around but didn’t materialise but through all this came the Mercedes of Nico Rosberg to claim the first victory of 2014.

He started third but launched himself into a lead he was never to lose. Without the safety  car intervention he would probably have doubled the 26.7second lead he held over Kevin Magnussen’s McLaren.

A perfect start was matched by a relentless pace which probably could have been faster if he wanted to. However, with the troubles his team mate Lewis Hamilton suffered over the weekend, it was probably best he did just what was required rather than push the limits.

All the teams suffered some sort of reliability problems over the weekend and Mercedes was no exception despite being the pace setters. Hamilton suffered a sensor problem which shut the car down in first practice then his engine suffered a problem they noticed on the warm up laps before the race. It dropped him down to five cylinders and it was immediately obvious from when the lights went out that he was in trouble, he lasted only two laps before retiring having started from pole position.

At the moment it looks like Mercedes are way out in front so Lewis’ retirement means he’s already dropped 25 points to his most likely challenger in the championship, but this won’t bother Nico who took the fourth win of his career and set himself up nicely for the year ahead.

Red Bull had looked like they’d worked a minor miracle. Both cars looked quick in practice but a problem for Sebastian Vettel with the engine software meant he was losing power from Saturday onwards. He could only qualify 13th as a result and didn’t make more than three laps of the race to say he sounded frustrated was an understatement.

Daniel Ricciardo made his debut for the champion team this weekend and was just sensational. He was quick all weekend and almost grabbed pole position. He held second throughout the race holding off Magnussen’s McLaren for most of it to take a well deserved first podium.

Unfortunately this result has been stripped from the record books. Ricciardo was disqualified for his car consistently exceeding the maximum fuel flow rate of 100kg/h. The FIA warned the team during the race that this was happening but apparently this was ignored. Red Bull claim the fault lies with the sensor which monitors fuel flow and had already been replaced and then refitted during the weekend because of unreliable results.

It all seems a bit murky, but Red Bull has already announced their intention to appeal the decision. But perhaps more importantly for the rest of the year is the fact that despite all their winter testing struggles Red Bull have a fast car and one with which they have barely scratched the surface of in terms of performance. 

To bring a car home when they hadn’t even attempted a race distance should be satisfying in itself, to bring it home at a reasonable pace and on the podium means Mercedes shouldn’t count on this title battle being just between their own drivers. These Bull’s are getting ready to run and run fast.

Completing the podium after Ricciardo’s disqualification were the two McLaren’s. Kevin Magnussen was a true star this weekend. He out-qualified his far more experienced team mate Jenson Button and then managed to finish ahead too. Magnussen started fourth but was soon up to third and kept the pressure on Ricciardo throughout the Grand Prix. Button used his pit stops to jump the likes of Nico Hulkenberg and Fernando Alonso to claim fourth which became third.

It was impressive racing from the Woking squad, who get a double podium after not taking any in 2013. Their pace wasn’t too shabby either and they should be definite podium contenders in these opening rounds. If they can keep their development up who knows where this season will lead.

What we do know is that Magnussen is already a star of the sport. His calmness in the race was impressive and the way he went for Lewis on the opening lap was fantastic, even if the Merc was hobbled. I expect many more podiums from him this season, while Button certainly has his hands full.

Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen were disappointed with Ferrari’s double points finish, winding up fourth and seventh respectively. Alonso is already saying Ferrari should not be happy with where they are. They didn’t have the pace and he spent a lot of it trapped behind Hulkenberg, only passing him by staying out two extra laps at the second pit stops.

Kimi meanwhile spent a lot of time battling with the Toro Rosso’s and tyre graining. It wasn’t the best race for Kimi and he’ll want to step up his pace against Alonso quickly as the Spaniard looked a great deal quicker throughout the weekend.

Bottas rescued Williams’ race despite hitting the wall. If he hadn’t he may well have sneaked a podium such was his pace. He had started 15th after getting a five place grid drop due to a gearbox change, but soon charged up the order. He was the most entertaining driver of the day, catching people at seconds per lap and then immediately making an incisive move.

It was such a disappointment he hit the wall as he caught up with Alonso ahead. Still, it showed Williams have made progress after not impressing in qualifying as much as might have been expected. On this showing a few Williams podiums can’t be far off.

Hulkenberg took sixth after battling with Alonso, while his Force India team mate Sergio Perez took 10th after suffering a puncture on the opening lap. Toro Rosso also impressed by managing to hold on to their wet qualifying top 10s in the dry when in practice they had not looked good. Jean-Eric Vergne claimed eighth while new boy Daniil Kvyat was outstanding on his way to ninth to replace Sebastian Vettel as the youngest ever points scorer.

Behind the points scorers, Sauber failed to deliver much pace while Kobayashi’s brake problem denied Caterham a chance to shine, although he had got into Q2. Marussia had start line problems but got both cars home even if Jules Bianchi was eight laps down. It should be noted that Max Chilton actually out-qualifed Bianchi, which I thought was quite impressive.

Lotus was the most underprepared team coming into this race and it showed. They suffered problem after problem, with Romain Grosjean starting from the pit lane for which he got a drive through penalty for leaving the garage too early. Pastor Maldonado barely did a lap and started last. So surprisingly they got both cars past the halfway mark and showed a decent amount of speed too. Once they can eliminate their problems, of which there are many, they’ll soon move up the grid.

Round up

So what has this race told us? Mercedes are superfast but not without their problems. Williams missed an opportunity this weekend, McLaren have a new superstar on their hands, Ferrari and Alonso are going to go their separate ways if the team don’t improve quickly and Red Bull performed miracles this weekend so it was such a shame they weren’t rewarded.

I'd also like to say the engine noise is perfectly acceptable, the rolling deep thunder combines well with the whine of the turbo and electrical power. It's something we'll all get used to, although maybe it would be nice if it was slightly louder.


There were many questions before this weekend, there are still many questions but at least we’ve got a few more ideas as we head to Malaysia. Australia was a good race, but it’ll get even better when the teams get on top of their cars and they can all go on maximum attack.

Result:

1. Nico Rosberg - Mercedes
2. Kevin Magnussen - McLaren
3. Jenson Button - McLaren
4. Fernando Alonso - Ferrari
5. Valtteri Bottas - Williams
6. Nico Hulkenberg - Force India
7. Kimi Raikkonen - Ferrari
8. Jean-Eric Vergne - Toro Rosso
9. Daniil Kvyat - Toro Rosso
10. Sergio Perez - Force India
11. Adrian Sutil - Sauber
12. Esteban Gutierrez - Sauber
13. Max Chilton - Marussia
R. Jules Bianchi - Marussia - Unclassified
R. Romain Grosjean - Lotus - ERS failure
R. Pastor Maldonado - Lotus - ERS failure
R. Marcus Ericsson - Caterham - Oil Pressure
R. Sebastian Vettel - Red Bull - loss of power
R. Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes - Engine
R. Felipe Massa - Williams - Accident
R. Kamui Kobayashi - Caterham - Accident/Brakes
DSQ. Daniel Ricciardo - Red Bull

all photo's taken from autosport.com

Thursday 13 March 2014

Australian Forecast


Melbourne, Australia is where we really get to see just what Formula 1 has become this year? Quieter engines, dodgy nose jobs, fuel efficiency. It’s not the kind of words you want to hear when talking about the loudest, sleekest and fastest sport in the world.

But this is what we’ve got and a lot of what's been said about the new rules is just over reaction. The engines have a low rumbling thunder quality to them and with 22 cars on track will sound awesome. There’s also the whistling and gasping of the turbo which sounds like it’s an old Group B rally car sometimes.

We’ll get used to the look of the cars, and the speed will be ramped up in no time and to be fair who cares as long as the racing is good. With a shake-up of the competitive order expected, this is going to be awesome.

Nobody really knows what’s going to be going on. I think the only thing we can say with certainty is that Mercedes will probably be on top, but will Lewis Hamilton keep his edge over Nico Rosberg or will this new racing play to Rosberg’s strengths? Where will Vettel and Red Bull be on the grid, and can they even dream of finishing? Will Magnussen be the next superstar? Will Ferrari implode with two world champions shaping up to do battle? Is Massa about to return Williams to the top? Can Hulkenberg show the top teams how good he is by sneaking an opening weekend win? And most importantly can Marussia or Caterham score?

All that and so much more to look forward to at this race and 18 others, it really is going to be quite the thrilling year of racing.

But thinking of the rest of the year is too far in the future. Let’s look at who could win this opening round. First of all Pirelli have brought the soft and medium compounds. All of Pirelli’s tyres are a bit more conservative to deal with the extra torque the new power units have, but they should still provide at least a two stop event.

The weather looks like it is getting progressively worse over the weekend. Friday is nice and dry for the opening practice sessions, Saturday is cloudy while Sunday looks like rain. I’m sure that’s the last thing any team wants although perversely it might help a few teams finish, cooler temperatures and a lower average speed might assist this new fragile machinery (Red Bull might well be doing a rain dance as we speak).

There are two DRS zones, one on the start finish straight the other between turns two and three. They aren’t long straights so passing will still be tough.
Nothing about this opening race is a foregone conclusion, reliability problems have affected all the teams but it had looked like Mercedes would walk it. But rain brings an extra element as always and so could see Mercedes fail to utilise their early season advantage.

For instance Ferrari might hope for rain to ease their fuel worries, with Kimi a winner here twice before including his first win for Ferrari in 2007, his first race for the team. What price for him to show Alonso up immediately?

Jenson Button has won three times in Australia and McLaren are a lot more competitive than last year. All the other world champions on the grid have won here before too and all are good in the wet. Wet weather is a bit of an equaliser so if it does rain it’s going to be absolutely amazing.

Otherwise if it’s a dry race, there is no form to speak of with these cars apart from testing. I expect Mercedes to head the field with Lewis shading Rosberg, I hope Williams can maintain their testing form too; they look like the closest challengers, Felipe Massa I think will get a podium with Valtteri Bottas not far behind.

Force India, McLaren and Ferrari will complete the top 10 in Q3. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a miracle from Red Bull with Sebastian Vettel and Daniel Ricciardo thrilling his home crowd by getting some points finishes.

Testing has given us a lot of expectations about how things will go, but testing never really shows the true picture, Mercedes might not have it their own way, every teams expectations are all up in the air right now, which is what makes this opening round so exciting.

There’s so many questions to be answered and we’re not far away from knowing a little bit more about how the story of 2014 will work out. Whatever happens, this year is going to be one of the most exhilarating and changeable we’ve seen for some time although one team already has a slight edge the rest won't want it to keep for long. 



all photo's taken from autosport.com

Wednesday 12 March 2014

The most exciting season in years


This season is the most anticipated in years. We all know by now the major changes affecting this year’s competition with 1.6 litre turbo power units with a 160bhp kick provided by two energy recovery systems, one through kinetic energy and one through heat.

Aerodynamic changes have rid us of exhaust blown diffusers while also providing us with funny nosecones which are variously shaped like animals and other appendages. We’ve got a guarantee that in Q3 all drivers will participate as an extra set of tyres will be provided and I’m looking forward to the return of the Austrian Grand Prix which even with the updated track provided entertaining racing while Russia makes its debut with a circuit which winds its way around the winter Olympic park in Sochi.

So how are our teams and drivers stacking up so far? You can’t really make too many certain guesses from testing, but if anything, with so many changes afoot the teams couldn’t really afford not to show their hand a little bit as they sought to make sure their cars were in working order.

Even after three four day tests there are still many teams which haven’t run a race simulation, some haven’t even managed a qualifying sim either. Worse still, some can barely manage to complete a lap without their car suffering from some kind of problem. Even now, Renault who supply four teams this year haven’t run their new power unit at full revs.

This is just the beginning though, things in Formula 1 can change very quickly and often do. Here are ten things to look out for as the season progresses.

1.Is this Rosberg’s year?

Mercedes have been by far the most impressive since testing started. They completed the most mileage whilst also setting impressive lap times in qualifying trim but especially while doing longer runs. The rumours go that Mercedes may actually have been one of the few teams to have kept something in hand and could have an advantage of up to a few seconds a lap. One team insider went so far as to say that Mercedes could lap the field in Australia. Twice.

I’m not sure we’ll get that far, if Mercedes do have a head start then they’ll want to be looking after their cars. They racked up the laps but they suffered their fair share of reliability problems too, concerning for them was that most problems reared up during the final test. Of course it’s better it happen there than in the race. At the moment the Silver Arrows look like they’ve already got one hand on the title so it could already be a two horse race.

Rosberg or Hamilton then? There’s been a lot of talk that this could be Rosberg’s year. He is being touted as someone who is able to see the wider picture and think their way through a race which is something that will be needed when they still have to look after the tyres but more importantly manage the fuel. It can’t be all out attack when you’ve only got 100kg of fuel on-board down 50kg from last year.

Rosberg has already shown he can match Hamilton for pace most of the time, but it’s that most of the time that makes you wonder if he can complete the job. It’s not all the time, and he can still disappear during some races. Lewis has already rubbished talk of the new regulations not suiting him.

Hamilton is still probably the most naturally gifted driver in the field, but he has tended to lose focus over the last few seasons. In 2013 the car also didn’t suit him, but this year, just from the way he’s talking I’m not sure he can be stopped, he seems confident. Lewis wants to attack every lap, but he knows he can’t do that anymore and he’s intelligent enough to know that he can’t just rely on his skills but has to work the race out so he knows when to unleash his full speed.

I think the question it comes down to is this: In a head to head race on any given day who do you think would win, Rosberg or Hamilton? I think it’s going to be close, but you’d choose Hamilton every time and that makes him most likely to be champion if Mercedes can keep this form up.

2.Williams and Force India to fight for wins

If you go by testing then Williams and Force India with Mercedes power behind them look like they’re the nearest challengers to the works team. Williams especially did almost as much mileage and headed the times on a few days.

Force India also managed to top the times on a few days and both teams race pace looks consistent and strong. The only thing that might stop them getting to the top step of the podium is Mercedes as that team do look like they will dominate the opening exchanges this year. I fear that if these two teams don’t capitalise on any early season advantage they might have then the likes of Red Bull, McLaren and Lotus might well have caught them up.

However, especially in Williams case, they have a lot of new personnel including Pat Symonds and Rob Smedley along with acquiring the talents of Felipe Massa. I’m sure the Brazilian is going to be given a new lease of life after being over shadowed by Alonso for the past four years. Valtteri Bottas too looks like he will have gained a lot from his first year in the sport and could emerge as one of the next generation of superstars although I’ve a feeling he may well end up being shaded slightly by Massa.

The man who should have been in a top line car has stayed in the midfield 
with a return to Force India. Luckily it looks like it might have been a great decision as Nico Hulkenberg aims to display his talents behind the wheel in the hope of getting in with a major team. I think we’ll certainly see his first podium this year. Sergio Perez partners him, he had his shot at the big time with McLaren and I rather think he was treated unfairly by not being given a second year there, but it doesn’t seem like it’s too bad a step back.

3.Ferrari in the pack again?

Ferrari have been fairly reliable in testing, they’ve been fairly quick too especially in qualifying. But they’ve not been outstanding, they’ve been rather middling if truth be told. Ferrari I’m sure expected to be in the position that Mercedes find themselves in. They’ve both gone for similar concepts in terms of design especially with regards the nose area, but for some reason Ferrari just haven’t stood out at all.

Rumours go that their engine is particularly thirsty at the moment which means they’ll have to run a lot slower in the races so they can manage the 100kg fuel limit and actually get to the end. It could be a scenario where they qualify well and then drop off the pace fairly quickly when we get to Sunday. For their sake I hope that’s not the case as another year with an uncompetitive car could drive a wedge between their star driver. Well on of their star drivers…

4.Alonso’s frustrations to allow Kimi to shine?

Now if Ferrari are in trouble and don’t have a title worthy car it’s going to be fascinating to see just how Fernando Alonso deals with it. It took him four years but in 2013 he finally began to show signs that he wasn’t best pleased with how the team were performing. If 2014 turns into a similar scenario then we could well see some toys starting to be thrown off the horse with the expectation that we could see the Spaniard vacate his seat.

If that happens then I expect Kimi Raikkonen to take full advantage. Kimi cares a lot about his racing, far more than his relaxed demeanour lets on, but if the car is bad, he’ll just get on with it and do his best and not let his frustrations get in the way.

A lot has been made of the potential fireworks we might get between Kimi and Alonso but I don’t see it. Kimi just wouldn’t respond and wouldn’t care, he’s only interested in driving the car. I can imagine that there’s far more potential friction between the team and Alonso.

They need to provide him with a car that can challenge for victories all year if their relationship is to continue. I don’t think they’ve provided him with that, and as the season wears on I think Alonso will not take it well and that could allow Kimi to come through. In fact I think Kimi will outscore Alonso this year because of it.

5.Magnussen to pressure Button

McLaren looked great at the start of testing, but by the third test things began to look less exciting for them. With Ron Dennis putting a hand on the rudder again, McLaren will expect to get back to winning ways very soon, but I’m not sure it’s going to in the too near future.

To be fair to the Woking team they ran in launch specification throughout testing and will go to Melbourne with plenty of upgrades so their fortunes could be substantially better than we’ve seen so far.

One thing I’m fairly certain of is that Kevin Magnussen is going to be a star this year. He has looked extremely impressive so far and I think will outshine Jenson Button. Button may outscore him through experience but I’m not certain about that, I do think though that Magnussen will almost certainly have a speed advantage, this kid is that good. However if McLaren do sneak a win this year, I think it’ll be Button.

6.Vettel’s toughest test

As I wrote earlier in the year, Vettel is going to have it tough this season. At the moment Red Bull are nowhere. The Renault power unit isn’t working properly and hasn’t even been run at full revs, added to this is the Red Bull is too tightly packed so doesn’t allow the engine and energy recovery systems to breathe. Throughout testing they were hacking and sawing holes into the body work, even then it didn’t allow the car to run for too long most of the time.

I don’t think the team will be strong in Australia, I’ll be surprised if they even make Q3 and potentially they might now get out of Q1. However as regards the rest of the year I’m sure they’ll sort it out.

In 2009 when the last major overhaul of the rules took place they were there. I have no doubt that their concept will work with refinement and they’ll soon be battling Mercedes again like they did that year when the silver squad were Brawn.

I think this year will see Vettel gain more credit than any of his championship winning campaigns did, he is that good and he’ll prove it with some battling drives. His new team mate Daniel Ricciardo will do enough to upset the champion a few times but I don’t see him beating Vettel over an entire year.

7.Toro Rosso to be the leading Red Bull team

The Italian team could out perform their big sister for the first time since 2008. They didn’t have the best of testing either but in the early races I expect them to surprise a few people and lead the Bulls. They were generally quicker and could go further so I think it’s a reasonable expectation. I don’t expect it to last long though.

Jean-Eric Vergne has something to prove after missing out on the Red Bull driver, while rookie Daniil Kvyat is reigning GP3 champion and will want to be beat Vergne if he’s to become the next Red Bull superstar.

8.Marussia to get some points

Honestly, I don’t think they will. I mean they had a lot days where they hardly ran and when they did the pace wasn’t great although it was comparable to a lot of other teams so maybe they have genuinely made a step up. If they are to score a point they will have to do it in the first few races before all the teams find out how to get their cars to the finish. It’ll be Jules Bianchi to score while Max Chilton won’t, although he’ll finish a lot of races.

9.Caterham not much faster than a GP2 car

Kamui Kobayashi returns to Formula 1 after a year off and unfavourably compared the pace of his new car to that of a GP2 car. To be fair Caterham is one of the teams afflicted with the Renault engine, but it is also the one which has run the most miles with it. So if the first races are an attrition fest then perhaps Kamui or Marcus Ericsson can take advantage.

Team owner Tony Fernandes is threatening to close the team if he doesn’t see a noticeable improvement, hopefully Kobayashi’s no doubt spectacular adventures will take the heat off the team.

10.Lotus and Sauber stuck in the midfield

It might not even just be the midfield for Lotus, they didn’t run well and only showed occasional flashes of speed, whereas Sauber were mostly reliable but didn’t show too many signs of decent pace.

It could be a year stuck in the doldrums with none of these four seats filled by people you might expect to get an amazing result from nothing, with the exception of Romain Grosjean. I hope he can maintain the mature performances from last year even if he is stuck in the midfield. Of these two teams I expect Lotus to make the most progress.

F1 2014 is about to start, this year is about change and I expect the competitive order to change throughout the year as teams discover and understand more about their new cars. It’ll be just a little bit thrilling. 

all photo's from autosport.com