Sunday 30 June 2013

Rosberg wins crazy British Grand Prix


A chaotic but superb Grand Prix unfolded at Silverstone resulting in a second win of the season for Mercedes Nico Rosberg, but as with his first victory in Monaco it’s likely to be over shadowed by more tyre controversy for Pirelli.

Four massive blow outs on the left rear tyre punctuated the race causing concern for all the teams, was it a proper tyre issue or was it the kerbs on the track causing the problems? The drivers were told to try and stay off the kerbs, especially around turn 4 where the first two happened on the following Wellington straight to erstwhile leader Lewis Hamilton and then Felipe Massa.

However the next two came down Hanger straight, seemingly making the issue one of Pirelli’s construction. With a rainy Friday and a cooler Saturday the tyres hadn’t been subjected to the higher temperatures experienced today so the teams weren’t sure how much to push the tyres. In the end the two safety car intermissions caused by the third blow out of Jean-Eric Vergne and then Sebastian Vettel’s shock retirement with gearbox failure probably helped to prevent many more tyre problems but Pirelli won’t like the novelty of having to see road sweepers clearing their rubber away in the middle of a race.

Whatever the causes, Pirelli are already locked in talks with the FIA about what happened but it should take nothing away from Rosberg who drove brilliantly to keep everything under control to win. He didn’t have a great start from the front row and tried to slot in behind the pole sitting Hamilton but Vettel was straight through. He settled in behind those two, not falling away but not putting on too much pressure either. In the end the race came to him, first after his team mate Hamilton suffered his puncture, then Vettel’s retirement sparked jubilation from the crowd as the Mercedes surged past.

Rosberg dived in for a third stop as the safety car was called to clear Vettel’s Red Bull from the start/finish straight so had fresh rubber for the final six lap sprint to the finish. Immediately behind him was Kimi Raikkonen’s Lotus followed by Adrian Sutil and Daniel Ricciardo, all of whom had chosen not to stop. Behind them was Mark Webber who had stopped for new rubber and was on a mission.

Rosberg was told to look after his Pirelli’s and once Webber had surged into second place, the Mercedes eeked out a fastest lap with four laps to go. It was probably enough to keep him ahead, one more lap and the Red Bull might have had him, as it was Rosberg won by 0.7. He’d done just enough.

Mercedes were worried about their tyre wear, but with the rather obvious exception of Lewis, they seemed ok. Certainly the tyre issues they experienced in Bahrain and Spain seem to not be as obvious, although it’s certainly arguable if Rosberg would have been able to catch Vettel, as is whether Lewis would have been able to keep Vettel behind.

Whatever though, Rosberg picked his way through the tyre littered track to collect 25 points which he clung on to despite a post-race reprimand for going too fast in a yellow flag zone. Even though the team are not talking about the championship their rivals will still be looking ever more earnestly at the silver cars on race days. Not for them the drop down the field anymore.

Webber so close to his third Silverstone victory


Mark Webber would have been a thoroughly worthy winner of the British Grand Prix. A storming drive after another of his catastrophic starts left him way down in the pack minus part of his front wing after a touch with Romain Grosjean.

At the end of the first lap he had plummeted down to about 15th place. But we all know this Aussie is a fighter and in his final race at Silverstone he wasn’t about to give up. At his first stop he got his wing changed and was soon up to the fringes of the top 10; with the safety cars he was able to gain further time.
Just before the Vettel safety car he managed to pass Fernando Alonso and was chasing after Kimi for the podium. After he pitted for the final time under caution he lay 5th behind Rosberg, Kimi, Sutil and Ricciardo.

Green flag, six laps to go. Webber tore ahead of the Toro Rosso and Force India within a few laps and was soon on to the back of Kimi. The Finn had questioned why he hadn’t come into the pits as well but it was too late now. He put up a fight, hanging on round the outside as Webber dived into Copse beside the Lotus. Kimi was out of it though and dropping off the podium.

Webber now had four laps left to close a 2 second gap to Rosberg, he went for it, he really went for it, bringing it down to under a second with a lap to go. He was in DRS range but it wasn’t quite enough, but one more lap and he’d have been by the Mercedes.

A fantastic drive and a reminder of just why he’ll be missed so much when he goes at the end of the season. A lot of the media are saying they’ll miss him because he speaks his mind which is certainly true, but ahead of that is the fact he’s a proper racer and one of the best passers in the sport.

At the head of the championship…

Vettel suffered his first retirement of the year through no fault of his own as his gearbox let him down while leading fairly comfortably. He didn’t have a large gap but he certainly didn’t seem stretched. Will this worry him? I don’t think so, he was well clear of his supposed championship challengers and I think we can be assured he’ll be scoring heavily next weekend in Germany.

The real worry is the pace of the drivers who are meant to be giving him a fight. Ferrari struggled in Canada and despite a charge to the podium for Alonso they had already suffered a poor qualifying (only 9th and 11th), so even though they have significantly better speed on Sunday they’ve already given their rivals an advantage, one which is very difficult to get back against a team like Red Bull.

Now with Mercedes staying afloat during the races they have to fight even harder to get back near the front. Alonso has complained that the updates they’re bringing are not giving them the performance gains they should be.

Ferrari isn’t making enough of what is fundamentally a decent car and with the on-going tyre saga complicating matters still further it’s unclear if they’re going to be able to get level again with Red Bull.

Despite all this Alonso managed to claim another podium with third place. After being crowded out at the start he came back through the field, then made a second mini come back after dropping down to 8th when pitting behind the safety car. Some good passes and a brilliant avoidance of Sergio Perez’s McLaren suffering the fourth tyre failure and he was on the podium. He’s now within a race win of Vettel, but on current form it won’t remain like that for long without a massive improvement.

Kimi Raikkonen ran the passive DRS system for the first time this weekend. They’ve been trialling it in practice on occasion since Germany last year, but deemed it ready for use this weekend. It’s still a work in progress so how much benefit it brought this weekend is up for debate but it’s nice to see innovation.

It basically decreases drag on the rear wing to increase top speed via a little slot gap on the car, so they can have a DRS effect all the time. The problem has been to make sure the wing reconnects for the corners, but what ultimately it should mean is that they can run more wing for better speed in the corners without the drag it’ll cause on the straights. It’s a good device but one which is still in its early stages.

However, Lotus still looks like they are falling back. Like Ferrari the quali pace isn’t there, so they can’t exploit their race pace, which now seems isn’t enough to pull them back near the front anyway. They’re complaining the tyre choices are too conservative now as well which lends itself more to Red Bull and Mercedes, although I wonder what would have happened if Pirelli had brought the softer compounds rather than the medium and hard?

Kimi managed to claw some points back to Vettel but he’ll question if they’d pitted behind the second safety car whether he’d have stayed on the podium. He’ll live with 5th but it’s not enough right now and his team mate Grosjean still fails to consistently deliver to keep Lotus in the teams title fight.

Mercedes join the title hunt?

Rosberg may have won the race but it was Hamilton who was leading the way this weekend, starting from pole position and leading convincingly ahead of Vettel.

It is debatable if he’d have stayed ahead although team Principal Ross Brawn said Hamilton’s tyres were in great shape until the failure. Despite this Lewis still drove brilliantly to climb up from the back to end up in fourth position challenging Alonso for a podium.

Mercedes are progressing quickly this season. They’ve gone from not just fast on a Saturday to struggling on a Sunday but to regular contenders. How much this is down to the post-Spanish Grand Prix test session is another thing open to debate, but it certainly seems to have been significant in helping them understand a few things.

They moved up to second in the constructor’s championship today, three points ahead of Ferrari and only 48 behind Red Bull. They are and will continue to be a significant threat on their current form. Germany will probably be a similar temperature if not cooler at the Nurburgring next weekend which will suit them, so another win is certainly on the cards. Lewis will be hoping it’s time for his turn on the top step.

Rest of the top 10

Felipe Massa rocketed away from the line to go from 11th to 5th, unfortunately for him he was the second person to suffer a tyre failure and he dropped to the back of the pack. A good recovery to 6th, but it could have been a lot more.

Adrian Sutil and Daniel Ricciardo drove good races, at one point Sutil looked good for a podium. After the final safety car they dropped back but still ended with some decent points in 7th and 8th.

Paul di Resta took 9th but it could have been so much more, especially with the incidents going on in this race. He’d qualified 5th but his car was found to be underweight resulting in him being sent back to the back of the grid. So another qualifying problem meant it was time for what is now a trademark comeback through the field. He was impressive throughout and his battle with Lewis a real highlight. Nico Hulkenberg did well to drag his Sauber up to 10th and claim his first point for 5 races.

McLaren suffered another poor weekend. No cars in Q3 again and no points again despite both Jenson Button and Sergio Perez being in the points as racing got underway again after the 2nd safety car. Perez’s tyre died while Button just seemed to be shuffled down the order with no way of fighting back. It’s not getting any better for McLaren which is strange given that they’re usually such good developers. Makes you wonder if they even know what’s wrong with it in the first place.

One week until we’re at the Nurburgring

The questions about the tyres will rage all the way into the next race in Germany. Many drivers are worried about the safety aspect while others are wondering why some teams voted against returning to 2012 tyres or even changing the current construction.

If we’re going to suffer tyre failures so consistently then something needs to be done and quickly, because at one point you began to wonder if they should stop the race something that apparently race director Charlie Whiting was considering too. The teams and Pirelli are meeting on Wednesday to discuss the situation.

Rosberg took the win and Mercedes look very strong right now with Hamilton too. As we head to Germany they look like they’re becoming proper title contenders to join Alonso and Raikkonen. The only thing is I don’t think we saw anything today that will have Vettel unduly worried. He may have suffered a mechanical failure but he was leading at the time and didn’t look under threat. That has to change in Germany.


all photo's taken from autosport.com 

Thursday 27 June 2013

Mark Webber leaves Formula 1 for Le Mans


Mark Webber announced today that  he will be leaving Formula 1 at the end of this season to return to sportscars with Porsche in the highest class of LMP1 to take on the World Endurance Championship and Le Mans 24 hours. 

He last competed at Le Mans in 1999 driving for Mercedes when the cars literally took off. The decision doesn't come as too much of a surprise, rumours of his impending departure have circulated for months now.

Webber is one of the most astute drivers on the grid and I think he knew there was nothing more to be gained in Formula 1. If he stayed at Red Bull he's still got the Sebastian Vettel problem, especially now he definitely knows Vettel will never help him after the Malaysian team orders fiasco, which will certainly have influenced his decision.

Potentially joining Ferrari? Fernando Alonso is good friend of Webber's but racing against each other in the same team? He'd be on a  hiding to nowhere. Anywhere else right now would be a step back so why not take on a new challenge.

I for one will be sad to see him go. As most of the F1 media have pointed out, he is an honest sort, and will speak from the heart and say what needs to be said. If there is injustice in the sport of Formula 1 then Mark Webber will give a good quote.

But more than that, some of his drives have just been epic. Especially if you've made him angry before hand he will seek to put the record straight out on the track, where it should be done.

Webber has had a decent career in Formula 1, finishing fifth at his home race in Australia on his debut for Minardi in 2002, stints at Jaguar and Williams followed before joining Red Bull alongside David Coulthard in 2007.

He had a few podiums in this time, but it was 2009 before he grabbed his first win in Germany that year, no one as going to stop him that day. He started from pole position but suffered a drive through penalty and yet still fought back to win he was untouchable.

2010 saw lead the championship for most of the year and was still the lead Red Bull driver when they got to the final race. A poor strategy left him down the points and his shot at the title was done. It was his most consistent and impressive season but Vettel snatched the title from him and since then he's dominated the team, with only glimpses of what Webber can do. He may not have won the championship but he's shown he has been more the capable of racing with the best drivers in the world and has more than deserved to be up there.


So now Webber seeks a new challenge and I have no doubt he will be a Le Mans winner in the next few years. He and the team will have to go some to beat Audi and the ever quicker Toyota's in the LMP1 category, but if any manufacturer is going to become the team to beat in sports cars, it's Porsche.

Of course the next question has to be who will replace him? It hasn't been often that a top seat has become available over the last few years and this is one of the best to come on offer. Initial rumours go that Kimi Raikkonen will be joining Red Bull next season, with the Toro Rosso pair in contention too. We'll see how this develops over the coming months, I certainly don't expect a rushed decision.

But for now he still has over half the current F1 season left, and where better to kick off his swansong than at Silverstone, a track where he's scored two of his most impressive wins including the 'not bad for a number 2 driver' moment. I will not be surprised to see him take a third this weekend. 

all photo's taken from autosport.com

Wednesday 26 June 2013

The British Forecast


Silverstone approaches this weekend and as ever the British racing media will hype it up as one of the great races of the year. Unfortunately as much as the results can be quite interesting a lot of the time the actual racing isn’t overly wonderful, unless the weather fancies spicing up the action.

Last year produced a good close competition but I think it needed it a bit of the inclement weather that had soaked the circuit for the two days before resulting in most unpleasant conditions for the spectators.

This year the forecast is for more rain, but light showers on the opening two days so qualifying might be effected. Race day is due to be cloudy with sunny spells, so it’s looking good for a dry race.

Anyway my first prediction for this year is that we’re going to get some decent racing. We’ve got two DRS zones now separated by about half a lap, the first on the Wellington Straight and the second on Hanger Straight. It’s about time there was a second DRS zone, this track hasn’t been known for easy overtakes so if ever there needed to be a second zone it was here.

Of course how can we preview a race meeting without mentioning the Pirelli tyres? After all the criticism they’ve faced they’ve decided to go conservative and are bringing the medium and hard compounds to Silverstone. This should result in something like a 2-3 stop race.

This displeases Lotus who are complaining that Pirelli are now not being adventurous enough, but these tyre choices and this track should suit Red Bull’s down force generating aero. In fact I already think it’s Sebastian Vettel’s race to lose and another step towards his fourth world title.

Only Mark Webber can stop him I think. He is brilliant around the Northamptonshire track, winning in two of the last three years, I expect Webber to be a major contender for the win and could out qualify Vettel for the first time this year. Well maybe … I'm afraid even Webber at Silverstone might not be enough to stop Vettel in his current form.

Now I know I said this track should suit Red Bull, but Mercedes will be a threat, especially on the Saturday, maybe just on the Saturday actually as there are a lot of fast corners at Silverstone meaning a lot of energy goes through the tyres. Mercedes themselves don’t think they have got their tyre issues fully under control, just the last few tracks haven’t had high degradation. I still think Hamilton will be on pole position, and even though he might fade out of winning contention a podium might be on if Pirelli’s conservative tyre choice helps them out. Rosberg will also be up there, but I don't think he can beat Lewis at home.

Of course Mercedes are lucky to be racing at all after their rather dubious punishment from the international Tribunal regarding their testing incident. They’ve been banned from the young driver test but as much as they did it in good faith, I think they’ve got away with something here. They wouldn’t make their drivers wear plain helmets if they weren’t trying to get away with something.

Anyway that’s been talked about to death and will only be talked about more as Red Bull now threaten to test seen as they’ll only receive a reprimand. I think it’s all talk though.

Now back to a few quick fire predictions. Ferrari could have won the last two British Grand Prix with Alonso, he’ll be strong again this year. If Alonso can qualify well it could be an epic dual with the Red Bull’s for victory.

If Lotus don’t have a good weekend, they’re out of the title battle. That’s a longer term prediction but after looking strong, two horrible weekends where Kimi Raikkonen has only scored 3 points means he’s dropped well off the pace. Needs to be strong here, although they weren’t wonderful in 2012, this years car is a lot stronger but Pirelli’s choice of compounds means they will have less of an advantage when it comes to the race.

Force India could get a podium with Paul di Resta. They’ve been getting stronger all year and I feel sure they’ll get one at some point this year. Also I’ve predicted it the last two races I can’t give up now. However, they are in a similar predicament to Lotus as regards the tyres so perhaps their chance has gone.

McLaren have done some straight line testing and are hopeful the updates they bring will give them a step forward. I don’t think McLaren will be in the leading back but they could be on for a strong points finish. A British podium will again be elusive for Jenson Button.


Toro Rosso will get another car into Q3 while if it rains on Saturday lets look to Valtteri Bottas to lead the Williams charge. The midfield battle is extremely tight at the moment but the title race is in need of spicing up, Vettel is being brilliant, I can only see this race being an extension of Canada if all goes according to plan, only an Alonso genius moment or the spice of rain can stop this being a Red Bull day.

all photo's taken from autosport.com

Sunday 9 June 2013

Vettel crushes rivals in Canada


This season has seen some pretty comprehensive victories but no one has dominated a race quite as brutally as Sebastian Vettel did today in Canada, even cars up to 6th place were lapped, that hasn’t been seen for a long time. The tyres were also lasting well in Montreal leaving Vettel to exploit the Pirelli’s and his Red Bull to the full at last to take his third victory of the 2013 campaign.

He made a fantastic start from pole position and was ahead of fellow front row starter Lewis Hamilton by over two seconds by the end of the first lap, it didn’t get any closer than that. It was like 2011, pushing to create a gap before the DRS was activated then pushing again when needed.

At the end of lap 7 he was 4.3 seconds ahead and for all the world it looked like he was cruising. He wasn’t of course, a wall at turn 4 bearing shades of his right rear tyre and a trip across the run off at turn 1 is testament to that, but despite this it never looked anything less than being in control of the race; only for three laps did he not lead the race as he made his first stop

He stretched his lead up to 20 seconds before backing off near the end, even putting a cheeky fastest first sector in on the final lap to stress his team out just a little bit, he’s always tempted by the fastest lap.

So not the hat trick of pole, win and fastest lap but a glorious display of precision driving that left everyone trailing. Even if title challengers Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen had started higher up, I don’t think anyone could have touched him today.

I wrote before how the likes of Alonso and Kimi had to start reeling Vettel in again this weekend. There are still 12 races to go, but Vettel has not finished outside the top four this year, he’s also won three times, all the while Red Bull are complaining about the tyres.

The tyre compounds are not due to change only the construction, so the degradation we have seen so far this year should return at other tracks unless Pirelli go all conservative. But if Red Bull can win so convincingly even with the tyres not how they’d like them, then the other teams will not be looking forward to the rest of the year.

Now I’m not saying Vettel and Red Bull are about to go on a winning streak, but while teams such as Lotus and Ferrari have fantastic race pace, they have shown an inability to qualify well enough to exploit their advantage with the tyres.

Even when they haven’t had the outright pace to win, Red Bull, especially in the hands and feet of Vettel have consistently been up there getting the best result they can.

Vettel’s title challengers have a lot to fear, and a lot of work to do if they are to get back on terms with the potential four time champions.

Jean-Eric Vergne and Paul di Resta take starring roles

Vergne took a fantastic 6th place this weekend for Toro Rosso. Starting from 7th, he made a good start and had good pace too. He passed the out of position Valtteri Bottas’ Williams in the early laps, and from then on ran a fairly lonely race with no one really to play with.

He wasn’t going to catch two Red Bulls, two Mercedes and a Ferrari without a dash of precipitation so 6th was a well-earned result and the best he could have achieved. He ran a two stop strategy and despite the alternative one stopper strategy being run by Paul di Resta behind, he had that covered too stopping a lap after Paul to cover his fresh tyres.

After Daniel Ricciardo looked to have gained the ascendency within Toro Rosso (the Aussie could only manage 13th after starting 11th and running high in 7th at one point) Vergne has produced two consecutive great performances. They’ve been nothing flash, but they got the job done. If he can continue this form maybe Red Bull will start to look at him instead of Ricciardo to replace Mark Webber should he leave…and if Kimi decides to stay at Lotus.

Paul di Resta is coming alive this year. After two fairly impressive seasons under his belt, albeit scoring less points than his team mates, he is finally becoming the number one in this team even though he’s had two fairly poor qualifying sessions in the last two rounds due to team decisions which Paul is keen to make clear to the press.

His recovery drives after being knocked out of Q1 have impressed. He was the only driver to really make a one stop work and keep up a great pace. He just got faster and faster, his Force India is generally kind on its tyres but after the displays of both Lotus’ this afternoon I think it could be said that this team have the kindest car to their contact patches.

Anyway after 57 laps on the medium compound tyre he finally pulled into the pits and re-joined where he left off in 7th. He was out of reach of the rest of the top 10 and could happily cruise to a superb six points in the closing laps.

As di Resta commented after the race if they can just get a clean race then a really decent result is on the horizon. I’m sure a podium can’t be too far away.

Valtteri Bottas shines

Yes, I know, he finished only 14th after starting 3rd, but what a fantastic 3rd. In a wet/dry qualifying he was on the pace all through the session. A top three start was nothing more than he deserved. Mixed conditions are always a great leveller; it’s where drivers in perhaps lesser cars can show what they can do. The likes of Max Chilton and Esteban Gutierrez also looked quite handy at times during the Saturday qualifying hour, even if it didn’t work out for them in the end.

Of course those lesser cars still need to be good on a wet track, and it did help that Bottas had a high down force set up in anticipation of rain that never came on Sunday. So really he was a sitting duck, but I found this even more impressive.

He did lose a lot of places, but the way he defended at times was extremely impressive. Holding off Alonso for a lap, the fight with Vergne and Sutil, it was good driving, not careless, and he didn’t hit anyone. It was very good for a rookie and showed he was tough but fair, something some of the other drivers have yet to learn.

It’s been a quiet start for him this year, but he’s regularly been on the pace of his race winning team mate Pastor Maldonado and beat him a number of times too. Bottas is a star of the future.

Filling the podium…

Fernando Alonso rose up from 6th on the grid to 2nd by the end while Lewis Hamilton fell from 2nd to 3rd. I think both will come away fairly happy from the weekend.

Alonso got by Bottas quite quickly, but it took him a while to move up the order. He didn’t immediately attach himself to the Mercedes of Nico Rosberg and Webber but calmly caught them. It wasn’t until Webber passed Rosberg in the first DRS zone that he had his chance. Rosberg was left vulnerable and the Ferrari was instantly through in the second DRS zone, sweeping past into turn 1.

It took damage to Webber’s front wing for Alonso to really get on terms with the Red Bull and he passed him on lap 42. Ten seconds up the road was the second silver car of Hamilton. Everyone may have been able to push this weekend on the tyres but some cars will always be better than others with them.

Ever since they were warring team mates at McLaren in 2007, it’s always something to look forward to when these two battle on the track. They’re never anything but fair with each other but you know that despite their present easy going relationship, they enjoy it when they put one over the other. Lewis defended brilliantly, but it was inevitable eventually in a DRS zone the Ferrari was going to get through and it did on lap 63, seven from the end.

Alonso needed Ferrari to be back on the pace and they were. They’re still lacking something in qualifying, but for that I think he could have been a bit closer to Vettel at the chequered flag. But they need more if they’re going to actually challenge for the title. Being 37 points adrift is not a challenging second place, it’s just second.

Still, Vettel was 40 points behind last year so all is not lost. Alonso is never one to give up, but they need to roll off some back to back victories because I can see Vettel scoring heavily in every race unless they have a problem.

Lewis will be glad to have got the better of Rosberg who was beginning to look increasingly dominant within the team. He says he still finds it difficult to brake the way he likes, but with time that will come.

Lotus suffer another poor weekend

If the rumours are true and Kimi Raikkonen is being courted by Red Bull then displays like this might convince him to make the move away from Enstone. A lowly 9th after starting 10th with no real signs of consistent pace was a poor return after a pretty rubbish Monaco.

They tried to make a one stop work, but it was no good and he was well off the pace in the first stint particularly, possibly down to having to work the tyres so hard when he was battling Ricciardo. This leaves him 44 points off Vettel in the title race. They need to step up their game quickly.

Lotus also dropped to fourth in the constructors, not helped by Romain Grosjean suffering another poor weekend. He started last after a grid penalty from Monaco, and eventually had to concede a one stop wasn’t working and that lost him any chance of a good points finish. For a team which prides itself on looking after the tyres, this was not good at all.

Rest of the top 10

Mark Webber potentially could have had a podium. Once he’d passed Rosberg he set about catching Lewis and pulling away from Alonso, but a clash with Geido Van der Garde’s Caterham while lapping him lost Webber a bit of front wing and after trying to stay with it he faded to a still decent fourth.

Rosberg’s shot at a podium dived when his rear tyres were over-heating, he was the only one to do a three stopper, so in the end fifth was pretty good.

Massa battled with everyone but the leaders and eventually got himself up into the points to take eighth. He suffered a qualifying ending accident, so at the British Grand Prix he’d probably not like to make it three weekends in a row with a big crash.

Adrian Sutil got the final point after surviving a spin while trying to get passed Bottas and being savaged by Maldonado in the other Williams.

Reflection and Future

It was a good race, not a great one. I wonder if we consistently got races like this if people would stop moaning about the tyres degrading all the time. It wasn’t helped by Vettel being so in control, however it was nice to know they were all going flat out for most of the race.

British Grand Prix in three weeks, Vettel has over a race win advantage now, if anyone is going to mount a challenge, Silverstone is as good a place as any to start it.

all photo's taken from autosport.com

Wednesday 5 June 2013

The Canadian Forecast


It’s the Canadian Grand Prix this weekend held at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal, so it’s time for a Pablo’s forecast. First of all at the time of writing, it looks like it could be a gloomy qualifying with rain likely, but the race is likely to take place on a dry track. Of course that’s all subject to change as ever.

Canada is a track full of long straights and not overly fast corners, meaning good traction and a good top speed are essential requirements around here. In years gone by we’ve had races dictated by the tyres, not least the 2010 race which served as a benchmark to how the FIA wanted the Pirelli tyres to behave. Canada has a lot to answer for! But in general it has a low grip surface and because of the lack of fast corners the tyres should hold up well, a 1 or 2 stop race is generally the preferred strategy in years gone by.

Pirelli are bringing the medium and super soft tyre to this race, they are not bringing any new compound or construction to be raced. With tyre wear not expected to be too critical this could mean Mercedes are again a major factor. They have been renowned for their straight line speed for a long time now, I fully expect a Mercedes driver to be on pole position again.

However, I’m not sure they’ll have it their own way like they did at Monaco. There it’s never easy to pass so they could dictate the pace, which was very slow in the early laps. In Montreal it’s a much easier place to pass, in fact there probably isn’t any need for a DRS zone, so it's annoying there's two; one on the back straight after the hairpin and the second on the start finish straight.

So with that in mind, if they can’t choose the pace they want to run at I don’t expect the silver cars to be still heading the pack by the end of the race. I do think Lewis Hamilton will show improved form this weekend. He’s been out-qualified by his team mate for three consecutive races and comprehensively out performed for the last two.

He needs to show some form, he was expected to come into the team and dominate it, but Nico Rosberg has already shown one world champion he wasn’t to be messed with, he’s doing the same to Lewis at the moment.

Hamilton is the current king of Montreal though, three times a winner and he always goes well here. If there’s any place for him to start reasserting himself, it’s here. If Nico continues his recent pole run, then the questions which are already being asked about Lewis, will get louder.

Lotus and Ferrari had poor weekends last time out and both will desperately want to get back to the top of the podium. Of these two teams, I see Lotus’ Kimi Raikkonen as the one most likely to take victory.

As I’ve said it’s easier to pass around here, the Lotus is good on its tyres as always so potentially could make a pit stop less than its rivals, and I think judging from past performances would still have the pace to hold any late two stoppers off. Having said that though, Hamilton proved last year making an extra stop was the way forward rather than trying to get to the end. It'll be interesting to see how Lotus approach this, I still think they'll have the edge on race pace as they'll be able to push the tyres harder even if they make the same amount of stops as everyone else.

While we're talking about Lotus expect to see Romain Grosjean bounce back after a torrid weekend in Monaco where he suffered no less than four separate incidents including mounting Daniel Ricciardo’s Toro Rosso. The Frenchman went well in Montreal last year when he finished second, if the race had been a few laps longer he probably would have won.

He needs a complete fast trouble free weekend, and despite the close proximity of the walls around there, this is the track he can do it on. He seems like a decent guy, and extremely fast, it would be a shame if he threw his Formula 1 opportunity away.

Fernando Alonso seemed subdued in Monaco, yes there were a few debris issues hurting the aerodynamics but he was caught out three times by passing moves which normally he would have seen coming.

He’s won once before in Canada but not since 2006. Alonso is more than capable of grabbing a podium here and he needs one if Ferrari is to make use of their best car in ages, they need to cut out the mistakes they weren’t making last year too. They didn’t have the pace in Monaco, they’ll be hoping that that was just blip. They’ll also not want any inexplicable crashes for Felipe Massa.

Of course the chances of a safety car here are extremely high, it’s not often a race in Canada doesn’t have a road going Mercedes heading the pack, and in this case that’s the only way I see Sebastian Vettel winning, or maybe even on the podium. However, he’ll almost certainly be near and definitely in the top 5, he’s been the most consistent out there this year, and I expect this to continue. He’s learnt something from Alonso last year and he just keeps on getting better.

Red Bull has never won here, and I don’t think they will this year either. It’s not a track that requires the huge downforce that an Adrian Newey designed car brings to the table, often over the last few years this is when other teams can come to the fore to steal their glory.

McLaren won’t be winning this year, they’ve taken the last three wins but I don’t think they have a chance. They’re getting better and I think they will again get both cars in the top 10 in Q3, but they’re not going to be repeating past glories any time soon.

Sergio Perez getting the better of Jenson Button again thought? That’s an interesting question and one I shall answer conclusively. No, Button is good around here, he should be the lead driver but I think Perez will be close, maybe even close enough to try a cheeky move which I’m sure will please Button no end.

Perez I’m sure will be talked about again in the drivers briefing but I don’t think he’s done much wrong, perhaps a little over exuberant but nothing dangerous.

My final race prediction is that a Force India will end up on the podium. I know I said this last time but historically in previous guises this team have done well in Montreal and in their current guise they have always been good at fast tracks. I’m going to go with Paul di Resta to take their first podium since Giancarlo Fisichella at the 2009 Belgian Grand Prix.

They’re in a similar situation to Lotus with tyres and could make a one stop work. We’ll see what happens there.

Of course tyre testing will still be a major talking point over the weekend, especially as Ferrari have now been brought into the debate, but seen as they were using a two year old car with a completely different suspension layout I don't really see they have a case to answer like Mercedes who used the current car, and who apparently altered their approach to the tyres after the test in Barcelona. It'll be interesting to see just how well they use the tyres in Canada.


Finally, here’s a few extra teasers, a Marussia or Caterham will finish last, Sauber will improve, a Toro Rosso will get into Q3, Williams will not improve and the title race is set to close up again. Should be an interesting and very open race this weekend, but one I feel Kimi will not be disappointed with.

all photo's from autosport.com