The Japanese Forecast

The Japanese Grand Prix is pretty much beloved by all; the Suzuka is a fantastic track with a great fan base and atmosphere. Japan used to be one of the last couple of races of the year, invariably that meant it would be the host of a championship decider. Many drivers have won here to cement their name in the Formula 1 hall of fame to join the likes of Senna, Prost, Hakkinen and Schumacher who have secured their glory here.

It doesn’t happen so often now. After Japan there will still be four races to go. In fact the only driver who has manage to win the championship here in recent years is Sebastian Vettel in 2011, when he was on an equally dominant run as this year has turned out to be. And it’s here again that he has his first opportunity to wrap up the title.

If Vettel wins and Fernando Alonso finishes ninth or lower, the title is secure for the fourth year in a row. However it is by no means guaranteed that Vettel will win, despite it seeming like after four consecutive wins. It’s also highly unlikely that Alonso will finish outside the top six. No, the likelihood is the championship will appear to still be alive in to the Indian Grand Prix two weeks later.

Of course, this race isn’t just about the championship, there is an actual race up for grabs and that is more open than it might seem. First off, the simple things; the weather is meant to bring some rain with it over the weekend. Particularly at the time of writing, Friday and Saturday are meant to be wet, making qualifying a potential lottery which could spice up the race. Sunday however is dry, which means anyone out of position will have the opportunity to fight back.

There is only one DRS zone at Suzuka on the start finish straight. It’s not overly long, and it doesn’t make as big a difference as some other DRS zones. The tyres Pirelli have brought are the medium and hard tyre compounds, so you wouldn’t expect degradation to be too significant here, despite its blend of medium and fast corners which puts extra strain on the tyres.

Let’s put it out there now and say if you don’t predict that Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull will be contenders for pole and victory, you’d be pretty silly. Winner in three of the last four races here, Vettel is most certainly a driver to keep your eye on this weekend!

However, there are other contenders out there. First of all, we have to go with the Mercedes pairing, both looked strong last weekend in Korea, particularly Nico Rosberg until he fell backwards, but for various dramas and strategy calls they would have had at least one car on the podium.

Before Rosberg’s wing failure, he was just about to pass Lewis Hamilton and look to attack Romain Grosjean’s Lotus in second place. So Mercedes do still have some pace to perhaps at least make it look like a fight for victory, they just have to get it all together which they have failed to do since the summer break. I still feel Mercedes can win a few more races this year.

Hamilton has never won in Suzuka, which for a driver of his ‘calibre’ is a glaring omission from his winning record. Watch for him in practice, if he shines consistently we could be on for a good competitive weekend.

The other team pairing who both have a chance for victory are the Lotus duo of Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean. Grosjean has outpaced Kimi in qualifying for the last few races, yet the Finn still manages to come out on top during the actual races even if at the last race it was because of safety car circumstance.

Grosjean is increasingly becoming a threat; he is making less mistakes and has now learnt to combine that with the fantastic speed he possesses. Lotus are renowned for being kind to their tyres and that always stands them in good stead for the race. Once again I think Grosjean will be a podium contender. Kimi needs to qualify well to stand a chance of victory, I’m not sure they or anyone else are really on Red Bull’s level unless the tyres are critical, but he’ll certainly be a podium contender wherever he qualifies. This is the man who came from the back in 2005 to win on the last lap.

Of course let’s not forget our one remaining championship contender; Ferrari’s Alonso. If you judge them on their pace in Korea, you have to say there’s no real chance they can beat Vettel, but there’s also no real way they will fall out the top 10 this weekend. In fact with Alonso you can most likely say he’ll be up there for a podium. I think this weekend there will be too many stronger cars, but he’s a definite top six man. If Felipe Massa can put together a good whole weekend, he can also produce the result his pace deserves but his race craft hasn’t over the last few weekends.

And just in case, I don’t want to forget Mark Webber. One day the bad luck he receives will be on the other Red Bull and he has to be ahead or a close second to bask in the good. As I’ve written before, it would be great to see Webber win one more time before his time in Formula 1 is up. He’s still producing the speed, but for various reasons, the whole weekend isn’t coming together.

Other predictions for Japan; I expect Sauber’s good form to continue. They had both cars in the top 10 in qualifying last weekend and then Nico Hulkenberg took every opportunity that came to him and secured a brilliant fourth place. They are looking like heading the midfield at the moment. If the car allows then expect more of the same from the Hulk. Esteban Gutierrez was actually ahead of Hulkenberg at the start but was then pushed wide by a spinning Massa. He ended up 11^th, but I feel Gutierrez’s chance to score a point is fast approaching.

Toro Rosso will want to fight back against Sauber. They are now behind them in the constructors championship despite having a far more consistent season. Daniel Ricciardo retired while in a points position last time out so they are more than capable of still being up there.

I would like to predict that Paul di Resta will get his season back on track. He’s crashed in the last three races and it looks like it’s all falling apart a bit. It’ll only take one result for that to turn, it’s just a question of it the Force India will allow it. On current form I’m not sure it will, perhaps that’s why he’s pushed a bit too far on occasion.

McLaren are a bit forgotten, but I expect more points in the lower reaches of the top 10. While Williams can expect nothing more than a midfield scrap. Caterham and Marussia will continue to fight for the tenth place in the constructors.

So who’s going to win? Well Vettel will win the championship. Who’s going to win the race? More difficult to say, but can you look past a Red Bull when the track suits highly efficient aerodynamics? No, no you can’t. So I’m going to say Lewis Hamilton. Or Kimi Raikkonen. If they don’t then I expect a mesmeric display from Vettel as he steps closer to title number four.

all photo's taken from autosport.com