The Indian Forecast

Sebastian Vettel can take his fourth consecutive world championship this weekend in India; does anyone doubt that he will? No, of course not, it’s practically a certainty he’ll claim the fifth place he needs to wrap it up. In a season where he has finished no lower than fourth and won the last five races only a disastrous weekend will delay the party.

Vettel has won the only two previous races at the Buddh International Circuit, in fact he has taken pole position and led every lap too. Everything points to Vettel securing the points he needs. That’s an easy prediction to make. However, he may not take the title with a win? Mark Webber still has a point to prove and I hope he can continue his Japanese form. And yes, believe it or not, there are still challengers out there that could stop the Red Bull victory parade.

Pirelli are bringing the soft and medium tyres this weekend which is a more aggressive option than last year. 

This should result in a more open race. The tyre choices since the regression to last year’s construction have been fairly conservative which has certainly favoured Red Bull in the second half of the campaign. Perhaps this direction will see other teams, particularly Lotus, manage to challenge for the top step of the podium.

Having said that the likelihood is that Red Bull has been on top of any tyre issues they had for quite some time. The weather is going to be hot all weekend; with temperatures looking to be into the 30C’s so that will be a test for the tyres and teams too. There are two DRS zones here, one on the start finish straight with another after turn three on the longest straight on the track. I wouldn’t think passing will be a problem here.

Ok, I’m going to make some rash predictions, well probably quite safe really but I’m just going to throw them out there. We’ve already established that Vettel will likely win the title this weekend, but I’m going to say that he won’t win. I think a Lotus will win. I think that Lotus will be the car of Romain Grosjean. Or Kimi Raikkonen. Probably Kimi, he’s the man to get the job done and he’s almost always there.

But Grosjean has been driving fantastically in recent races and certainly has shown great ability to the extent that he will be leading the Lotus team next year whether Nico Hulkenberg joins or not. Other likely challenges will come from Mercedes and Ferrari.

Mercedes could have had a good result in Japan if it weren’t for Lewis Hamilton’s first lap puncture caused by having a good start! It was a shame, but it’s doubtful he would have had the pace to hold off the Red Bull’s or even Grosjean. If the silver arrows can get a clean weekend then with either Lewis or Nico Rosberg they can claim a podium.

I can only see Ferrari getting on the podium if any of the three teams I’ve already talked about have problems. Of course Fernando Alonso can make his car dance on a tightrope if he so desired, but that skill isn’t good enough if the car isn’t remotely competitive anymore. Felipe Massa is apparently talking to Williams about a 2014 seat so will be looking to put in a good performance. He’s shown up Alonso in qualifying a few times over the past few race weekends, now he needs to demonstrate his racing ability once again.

Sauber are the fifth fastest team in Formula 1 right now. They have practically come from nowhere in the first half to potentially snatching sixth in the constructors from Force India who have gone in the opposite direction to the Swiss team. Nico Hulkenberg has been superb while Esteban Gutierrez after his points winning performance in Japan will be looking to keep that form up.

Force India are also-rans.  Their performance downturn came at the worst possible time for Paul di Resta, whose own form has taken a turn for the worse as well with several crashes. He’s ill at the moment and James Calado will take over in first practice to allow Paul a chance to recover. It would be kind of nice to see Calado get a chance to race although it would be like throwing him into the middle of the Atlantic with nothing but one inflatable armband.

Toro Rosso were leading the midfield pack but didn’t take enough of an advantage of it like Force India and now Sauber are doing. Consequently they have fallen to eighth in the teams table, which is still better than Williams, Marussia and Caterham, all who can expect more of the same disappointments that have characterised their seasons. At least Toro Rosso can generally expect a chance of getting a car (usually Daniel Ricciardo) into Q3.

Surprise of the race could be Jenson Button and McLaren. Button has been talking of going extreme with his set up this weekend as he has nothing to lose. It won't catapult him to a win but it'll certainly be interesting if there's an improvement in form. Sergio Perez meanwhile is being asked to prove himself once more after what many consider a disappointing season. In my opinion that's more because of the car, he's been just as quick as Jenson, ok there is a big points gap but one I'd expect to be closed next year. 

Finally the sad thing about this race is that it could be the last Indian Grand Prix for some time after only three races. It’s not on the 2014 schedule and after the difficulties with tax and administration that have afflicted it over the last few years, teams particularly are fed up with the challenges of actually getting their kit into the country, then it’s by no means a certainty that it’ll be back in 2015 as has been suggested. Even now there is a petition going to the Indian Supreme Court to stop the race taking place this weekend due to alleged unpaid taxes.

So yes, time to look forward to the crowning of the world champion and a first win for Grosjean. One of these things will almost certainly happen.

all photo's from autosport.com