Thursday 31 October 2013

The Abu Dhabi Forecast


So now Sebastian Vettel is world champion for another year, it’s all over isn’t it? Might as well pack up and go home now the title race is over for another year despite three races still to run. Well yes, you’d be foolish not to place a cheeky bet on Vettel making it nine race wins a row; if you enjoy a bet that is.

But this is Formula 1 and at some point people lose. They won’t always win. People once lamented that Michael Schumacher would win forever and no one else would get a look in. But no, in his last two seasons he lost the title, and in his second career he didn’t even win a single race.

Things change in sport, no one can win forever. With the pressure of the title race now finally done with, perhaps Red Bull’s and Vettel’s concentration will slip momentarily and allow others the chance for glory (unlikely).

We’ll see if there is any hope for that at this weekend’s race at the Yas Marina circuit in Abu Dhabi. It’s been on the calendar since 2009 and is now a dusk to night race. The tyres for the weekend are the soft and medium compounds which were used at India last weekend. As the race descends into darkness, although with hundreds of lights shining upon the circuit, it’ll be interesting to see how the tyre performance changes as the temperatures change when the sun goes out. It’ll still be hot though, the forecast is for the minimum temperature to be 23C this weekend.

There are two DRS zones this weekend between turns 7 and 8, with another one between turns 10 and 11. At a circuit which was hard to pass on and destroyed Fernando Alonso’s title hopes in 2010 as he struggled to pass Vitaly Petrov, it’s certainly worth having two DRS zones to make it slightly less, well dull.

So it’s guaranteed that the 2013 world champions Vettel and Red Bull will be up there fight for pole position and victory but who else will be in contention? Well I’m still hoping that Mark Webber will get a win in his final season of racing. He’s been a lot more competitive the last two weekends despite saying he is suffering with his motivation. It would be great for him to get one over on Vettel before his time in Formula 1 is up.

Never mind Red Bull for now though, even if they were to streak into the distance there’s still plenty of action out there to look for. The squabble for second in the constructors championship is an interesting one, with Mercedes ahead of Ferrari and Lotus closing both down.

Nico Rosberg was strong for the Mercedes team last time out, while Lewis Hamilton was a bit disappointed with his performance over the weekend. Lewis is always good in Abu Dhabi so I think he might have a chance of sneaking pole. It’ll also be interesting to see just the Mercedes team react to the increasing rumours of Team Principal Ross Brawn’s imminent departure.

I think Ferrari are done this year I can’t see them getting anything other than the odd podium in the last three races. You’d have to say that purely on last weekend, Felipe Massa will give the scarlet squad just as good a chance at a podium as Alonso. Massa put in a polished performance and will give him encouragement as he looks to secure his 2014 seat.

If Romain Grosjean hadn’t struck out in Q1, then where might he have finished in India? Second probably, as he rose almost unnoticed to snatch the final podium spot from 17th on the grid. I still think he might grab a win this year and I think Grosjean will get another podium this weekend, maybe even a win. Kimi Raikkonen on the other hand will probably just want to get one over on his upstart team mate. Actually, I doubt he’ll care, he was at risk of not even turning up as disagreements with the managers at Lotus have started to create tension, especially with Alan Permane who swore at Kimi over the radio last weekend.

However, Kimi won in Abu Dhabi last year, there’s nothing to say he can’t do it again. Lotus are strong, probably the second fastest at the moment, so if Red Bull slip up I think the black and gold cars will be there.

Watch out for McLaren as they look to confirm their improved performance from India. Sergio Perez did particularly well last weekend, while Jenson Button will be looking to somehow grab an elusive podium.

In the midfield battle I think Sauber still have the edge and I believe will be the fastest ahead of Force India and Toro Rosso who actually both outscored Sauber after Nico Hulkenberg’s retirement.


There’s still plenty of action to be had, and like I said before, in Formula 1 and sport in general, no one can win forever. Will Red Bull win the last three races? It would be a brave man to bet on that. 

all photo's taken from autosport.com

Wednesday 30 October 2013

Sebastian Vettel: Four time champion


It was inevitable from the moment the season started Sebastian Vettel would claim his fourth consecutive world championship in the far superior Red Bull. Well I get the impression that is what some people would have you believe.

However, Vettel has been head and shoulders above everyone else this season. Year on year since he came into Formula 1 in 2007 he has been driving better. It’s an often used cliché that critics spout about top sportsmen that they learn from their mistakes when what you actually get is that they make them perhaps slightly less often but they still make them.

Fernando Alonso for example still gets rattled when it seems like his team isn’t 100% behind him, Michael Schumacher still made basic errors on occasion even in his first career. At the time of writing and obviously subject to change as his career progresses, Vettel just seems to iron out any imperfections and won’t make the same mistakes again.

There were a number of errors in his first campaign for Red Bull in 2009. In 2010 when he won his first world championship there were slightly less, but he let Mark Webber get to him and his impetuousness in Turkey caused both Red Bull’s to crash. Now the Australian is well under control and when a fight does break out he remains in complete control.

The controversial Malaysian multi21 team order goes to prove that. It of course shows he is still learning to keep some of his racing emotions in check, but as he admitted after he knew what he was doing. He was faster so he passed him fairly cleanly. Yes, perhaps he shouldn’t have but it finally revealed that utter ruthless streak that all great sportsmen possess. It’s compromised his popularity with the motorsport fans despite him being a likeable personality, but that’s something he’ll get over and anyway in India he got a great reception when he won the title.

No, this showed he was prepared to do anything to win and this is why he is dominating the sport right now. Last year Alonso showed that when in a slower car you can still fight for the title. Vettel learnt from this and was just as consistent in the first half of the season as Alonso had been in 2012. He added yet another weapon to his arsenal. It was impressive that he never finished lower than fourth in a car that could not use its full potential due to the tyres while his win in Germany was beautiful as he held off the faster Lotus’ with some great defensive driving.

When he couldn’t get the win, he did the most the car and Pirelli’s could do. It was a lot more equal before the tyre construction was changed for Hungary but yet Vettel still held a healthy lead in the championship. Under the apparent hope of a proper fight for glory it went unnoticed that even in a car hamstrung by its tyres, Vettel was quietly dominating the season. He hasn’t gone more than two races without a win this year.

At this point there were hopes of a four way title fight but the fact that even in a sometimes struggling machine he was still up there fighting was cause for concern for his rivals, as at this time he was still dominating Mark Webber, albeit someone who knew he was leaving Formula 1 and was perhaps demotivated.

In previous years when the car hasn’t been at its best Webber has matched or often beaten Vettel, but not this year. Vettel has been on top form throughout, and when Red Bull came on song properly with a few modifications for Belgium onwards, then he flew. He was unstoppable. His drive in Singapore was just breath taking as he finished over half a minute ahead even with a safety car intervention.

Yes, since the summer break Red Bull have had a car that is so far above the rest of the field it’s half way to the moon. But I believe only one driver at the moment has the ability to exploit a car to its full potential and that’s Vettel. While Alonso and Kimi sometimes struggle with qualifying and Lewis Hamilton can be prone to lapses in concentration over a race weekend, Vettel doesn’t seem to suffer with these things. He’s always on it, in qualifying, in the race. When the team ask him to alter his driving style such as for the blown diffuser, he can do it, and do it quickly.

This season he has been on another level. Any doubts about whether he should be labelled with the greats of this sport should be firmly put to bed. Admittedly it would have been nice to see Kimi Raikkonen or another renowned top driver paired with him next season or for him to eventually go to another team, but those things can still happen but even if it doesn’t it should take nothing away from him. Webber is a fantastic driver and for him to be so comprehensively beaten says it all about how well Vettel is driving.


Sebastian Vettel is 2013 world champion and quite frankly no one else has come close to his level of performance; he is a richly deserving four time world champion. And at only 26 years of age, it’s be of some concern to his rivals that he’s only going to get better.



all photo's taken from autosport.com

Sunday 27 October 2013

Six wins in a row gives Vettel title number four


There should be no doubt whatsoever that Sebastian Vettel belongs with the true greats of Formula 1. His sixth win in a row, his tenth this season secured him his fourth consecutive world championship joining the likes of Juan Manuel Fangio, Alain Prost and Michael Schumacher. It also helped Red Bull wrap up their fourth constructors crown.

As with so many of his victories Vettel’s drive today was emphatic. Many pundits predicted that Red Bull’s other driver Mark Webber could take the victory as strategy options for the race were varied. Vettel was starting on the soft tyre which could barely last five laps whereas Webber had qualified on the medium tyre and could have a lot longer first stint while in theory Vettel would be stuck in traffic.

Vettel hasn't won so many races and taken so many titles without things going his way. It’s not to say that events just fall for him, he makes it happen, he’ll see the opportunity, take it and exploit it to the furthest it can go. He did that today.

Starting from pole position, the only man to ever start from pole in India in three events, Vettel flew away from the line. He made a slight movement to the right to just let the Mercedes pairing know he was there before just taking off. Felipe Massa had made another excellent getaway and had bolted past both silver cars down into turn four, but Vettel headed the Ferrari by over two seconds as they crossed the line for the first time.

Vettel pitted after just two laps dropping down the field to 18th place. As other soft tyre starters pitted he quickly gained positions and made decisive moves to get rid of the medium tyre starters too. So fast was he that he was into the top three in ten laps and after Massa, Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton had pitted to get rid of their soft tyres managed to get past Sergio Perez’s McLaren to take second and lie only 11 seconds behind Webber having been more than 18 behind.

It was an impressive performance. Once Webber had done a similar short stint on the soft tyres and made his final stop to go back onto the mediums, Vettel was back in the lead having made his final stop too. There was to be no stopping him. Try as he might Webber has just not been able to compete with Vettel this season at all, so as he tried in vain to catch his dominant team mate it was yet again the Australian who suffered the Red Bull bad luck.

An alternator problem took out Webber with 20 laps to go. It made the team look at Vettel’s data, a faulty sensor was leading them to believe that his car too could be on the verge of failure. Not that it stopped him lighting up the time sheets to record a fastest lap so far. As ever with Vettel though, he knew when to push his car and when not to; once he’d battled back into the lead there was never going to be a challenge to him.

Partly this is down to the fact that the other teams just have not done a good enough job this year while Red Bull have continued to develop their car with purpose. Vettel may well bow down to the Adrian Newey designed car, but significantly the other part is that I just don’t believe anyone is as good as Vettel at getting the maximum out of a good car. 

Anything the team ask of him he can do. We must not forget the Red Bull hasn’t been this far ahead for half the season, but Vettel had learnt from last year and had still built a pretty decent points gap before with the tyre changes and developments they allowed the car and consequently Vettel off the leash.

Once everything is honed you are not going to stop a driver of Vettel’s calibre. I will write more about his season as a whole over the next few days, but right now should just be a celebration of a remarkable driver. Some have said he’s making the racing boring, but he had to fight for his win today, and even when he’s dominating it’s an awe-inspiring performance.

Even his own victory doughnuts showed the world he’s the best at that too, for which he got a reprimand. But no matter, today was Vettel’s day and he took the glory with remarkable emotion and humility, he knows he’s lucky to do this job and he comes across as just a regular guy but one with an immense talent for driving racing machines right to the edge; no one could touch him this year, a truly deserving four time champion.

Grosjean charges from the back

Lotus have no need to worry about next season at all. They must know this now as Romain Grosjean took his third podium in a row with a fine third place finish from all the way back in 17th. It was a great drive built on one of the longest first stints on soft tyres; he stopped on lap 13.

The Lotus’ look after their rubber well but this was fantastic. His team mate Kimi Raikkonen stopped six laps earlier and tried to make it to the end of the 60 lap race. It didn’t work, Grosjean used his slightly fresher tyres to close down Kimi, they were battling for the final podium spot and despite how quickly Grosjean was coming at him, the Finn didn’t make it easy.

Coming down to turn four Grosjean went for it around the outside, Kimi on dead tyres held him wide giving him a slight nudge and pushing Grosjean off the track. Romain had taken the place but gave it back as he’d exceeded track limits something that perhaps last year he’d have lacked the head to realise this.

He calmly pulled off the move a lap later while Kimi sank several places before grabbing some extra softs with a couple laps remaining and taking seventh. But Grosjean is the form driver and if hadn’t been for a poor team choice to keep him on medium compounds for Q1 he’d have probably taken second and maybe, just maybe challenged for the win.

Perez stars to give McLaren timely reminder

Sergio Perez took a great fifth place finish driving with a calm assuredness and his typically have a go passing moves. He started from ninth and as the soft tyre starters pitted he rose up the field to run second behind Webber before his first stop at half distance. A few laps on the softs and he switched back to the mediums to run just behind Massa and Hamilton.

He drove with consistency and maintained a good enough pace to allow him to be in a position to take advantage of any problems. Hamilton was catching Kimi’s tyre suffering Lotus, while Lewis himself was feeling his tyres giving up too. Perez used it to his advantage and using the DRS he passed both of them in one go and simply drove away. McLaren should give Perez another go next year, I think he’s driven well enough to be given a good car rather than the truck they gave the Mexican this year. Meanwhile his world champion team mate Jenson Button could only finish a disappointing 14th after a problem filled race.

Massa looks to secure 2014 seat

Massa is in talks with Williams for next year, so it was good of him to put in his best race performance for some time. He out-qualified his Ferrari team mate Fernando Alonso yet again to line up fifth and then produced a great first lap to lie second. Once Vettel had pitted early he led for several laps before he had to make an early stop too.

Unfortunately while Vettel emerged in clean air, Massa came out into traffic and couldn’t cut throw the field quite as efficiently. Still, he held off the Mercedes pairing successfully until the final stops when Rosberg undercut him. He still managed to keep Lewis at bay and even began to close in on Grosjean. A good drive, one which he’ll need to replicate in the next three races if he really wants a 2014 place.

What the rest of the field did

Rosberg put in a great drive for Mercedes. While at first it looked like the silver arrow pairing might be relegated off the podium despite a great qualifying of second and third, Rosberg kept it all together and through strategy made it ahead of Massa. It was a crucial earlier stop that got him out ahead of Grosjean and meant he had first crack at the deteriorating Kimi. Second place was a decent result in a weekend when he looked to have the edge over Lewis who could only manage sixth.

The Force India’s had their best weekend for some time with Adrian Sutil particularly putting in a sparkling drive towards the front of the field before his first pit stop. Of course under the radar, Paul di Resta actually claimed the bigger points with eighth while Sutil slipped to ninth. A good result for di Resta, one that he desperately needed but not one which will have been noticed I fear.

It was about time Force India had something to shout about as they’d fallen behind Sauber and Toro Rosso on pace, but out scored them both this weekend to help them maintain their sixth place in the constructors race. Daniel Ricciardo grabbed the last point after running as high as third. Sauber meanwhile suffered misfortune as Nico Hulkenberg retired while Esteban Gutierrez got a drive through penalty for jumping the start.

Fernando Alonso

I can never forget the death stare of Alonso after he failed to win the world title last year. It was a face of such total disbelief and disappointment that he’d come so close and yet once again had failed. Today I imagine it was just one of resignation.

He hadn’t come close at all this season, in fact once the first few races were out of the way it was as if Ferrari failed to turn up. Well in a way, that is what happened as they haven’t brought any decent developments for quite some time. I believe Alonso on occasion has been guilty of perhaps phoning it in with the occasional flash of genius. He’s not looked happy, and after a race where he got into more scrapes in one lap at the start than he did almost all of 2012, I think we can forgive him that.

A damaged front wing and possibly the suspension too meant he could only manage 11th. It wasn’t enough to delay Vettel his glory, only a top two position might have done that but we need Ferrari to produce a great car next 
year, I think Alonso needs to be reinvigorated.

It’s not over yet


There’s still three races to go, and still much winning to be done. I wouldn’t bet against Vettel getting another three wins to match Schumacher’s record of 13 wins in a season, then again I still believe we will see a new winner this year too with Grosjean being that man. A lot of racing is still to be done and with the title pressure off it’s time to have some fun. For Vettel that started in India but now he’s on a celebratory road trip, can anyone stop him? 



Final Result:

1. Sebastian Vettel - Red Bull
2. Nico Rosberg - Mercedes
3. Romain Grosjean - Lotus
4. Felipe Massa - Ferrari
5. Sergio Perez - McLaren
6. Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes
7. Kimi Raikkonen - Lotus
8. Paul di Resta - Force India
9. Adrian Sutil - Force India
10. Daniel Ricciardo - Toro Rosso
11. Fernando Alonso - Ferrari
12. Pastor Maldonado - Williams
13. Jean-Eric Vergne - Toro Rosso
14. Jenson Button - McLaren
15. Esteban Gutierrez - Sauber
16. Valtteri Bottas - Williams
17. Max Chilton - Marussia
18. Jules Bianchi - Marussia
R. Nico Hulkenberg - Sauber
R. Mark Webber - Red Bull - Alternator
R. Charles Pic - Caterham - Hydraulics
R. Giedo van der Garde - Caterham - Accident damage

all photo's taken from autosport.com

Thursday 24 October 2013

The Indian Forecast


Sebastian Vettel can take his fourth consecutive world championship this weekend in India; does anyone doubt that he will? No, of course not, it’s practically a certainty he’ll claim the fifth place he needs to wrap it up. In a season where he has finished no lower than fourth and won the last five races only a disastrous weekend will delay the party.

Vettel has won the only two previous races at the Buddh International Circuit, in fact he has taken pole position and led every lap too. Everything points to Vettel securing the points he needs. That’s an easy prediction to make. However, he may not take the title with a win? Mark Webber still has a point to prove and I hope he can continue his Japanese form. And yes, believe it or not, there are still challengers out there that could stop the Red Bull victory parade.

Pirelli are bringing the soft and medium tyres this weekend which is a more aggressive option than last year. 
This should result in a more open race. The tyre choices since the regression to last year’s construction have been fairly conservative which has certainly favoured Red Bull in the second half of the campaign. Perhaps this direction will see other teams, particularly Lotus, manage to challenge for the top step of the podium.

Having said that the likelihood is that Red Bull has been on top of any tyre issues they had for quite some time. The weather is going to be hot all weekend; with temperatures looking to be into the 30C’s so that will be a test for the tyres and teams too. There are two DRS zones here, one on the start finish straight with another after turn three on the longest straight on the track. I wouldn’t think passing will be a problem here.

Ok, I’m going to make some rash predictions, well probably quite safe really but I’m just going to throw them out there. We’ve already established that Vettel will likely win the title this weekend, but I’m going to say that he won’t win. I think a Lotus will win. I think that Lotus will be the car of Romain Grosjean. Or Kimi Raikkonen. Probably Kimi, he’s the man to get the job done and he’s almost always there.

But Grosjean has been driving fantastically in recent races and certainly has shown great ability to the extent that he will be leading the Lotus team next year whether Nico Hulkenberg joins or not. Other likely challenges will come from Mercedes and Ferrari.

Mercedes could have had a good result in Japan if it weren’t for Lewis Hamilton’s first lap puncture caused by having a good start! It was a shame, but it’s doubtful he would have had the pace to hold off the Red Bull’s or even Grosjean. If the silver arrows can get a clean weekend then with either Lewis or Nico Rosberg they can claim a podium.


I can only see Ferrari getting on the podium if any of the three teams I’ve already talked about have problems. Of course Fernando Alonso can make his car dance on a tightrope if he so desired, but that skill isn’t good enough if the car isn’t remotely competitive anymore. Felipe Massa is apparently talking to Williams about a 2014 seat so will be looking to put in a good performance. He’s shown up Alonso in qualifying a few times over the past few race weekends, now he needs to demonstrate his racing ability once again.

Sauber are the fifth fastest team in Formula 1 right now. They have practically come from nowhere in the first half to potentially snatching sixth in the constructors from Force India who have gone in the opposite direction to the Swiss team. Nico Hulkenberg has been superb while Esteban Gutierrez after his points winning performance in Japan will be looking to keep that form up.

Force India are also-rans.  Their performance downturn came at the worst possible time for Paul di Resta, whose own form has taken a turn for the worse as well with several crashes. He’s ill at the moment and James Calado will take over in first practice to allow Paul a chance to recover. It would be kind of nice to see Calado get a chance to race although it would be like throwing him into the middle of the Atlantic with nothing but one inflatable armband.

Toro Rosso were leading the midfield pack but didn’t take enough of an advantage of it like Force India and now Sauber are doing. Consequently they have fallen to eighth in the teams table, which is still better than Williams, Marussia and Caterham, all who can expect more of the same disappointments that have characterised their seasons. At least Toro Rosso can generally expect a chance of getting a car (usually Daniel Ricciardo) into Q3.

Surprise of the race could be Jenson Button and McLaren. Button has been talking of going extreme with his set up this weekend as he has nothing to lose. It won't catapult him to a win but it'll certainly be interesting if there's an improvement in form. Sergio Perez meanwhile is being asked to prove himself once more after what many consider a disappointing season. In my opinion that's more because of the car, he's been just as quick as Jenson, ok there is a big points gap but one I'd expect to be closed next year. 

Finally the sad thing about this race is that it could be the last Indian Grand Prix for some time after only three races. It’s not on the 2014 schedule and after the difficulties with tax and administration that have afflicted it over the last few years, teams particularly are fed up with the challenges of actually getting their kit into the country, then it’s by no means a certainty that it’ll be back in 2015 as has been suggested. Even now there is a petition going to the Indian Supreme Court to stop the race taking place this weekend due to alleged unpaid taxes.


So yes, time to look forward to the crowning of the world champion and a first win for Grosjean. One of these things will almost certainly happen.

all photo's from autosport.com

Sunday 13 October 2013

Vettel charges to Japanese victory


Now that was a race. Sebastian Vettel won the Japanese Grand Prix at the fantastic Suzuka track. No great surprise really given the results since the summer break, but this wasn’t a walk in the park for the German. Too many people subscribe to the view that Vettel wins because of the car or that he is just strolling to victory.

The last time he was so dominant and scored 11 wins on the way to the world title was in 2011, but if you look back at that season, so many victories were actually close run things. He did what he needed to do to win.

Admittedly some of the last few races have resulted in crushing dominance. However, in Japan he demonstrated he doesn’t need to lead from the very first lap to win. In fact he can drop down the order, have a quite scrappy first half of the race before reaching into his reserves and flying back into contention.

This is why he is about to become a four time champion. His strategy was perfect and he executed it brilliantly. Away from the line, both he and his pole sitting team mate Mark Webber were slow away from the line allowing Romain Grosjean into the lead from fourth on the grid.

Vettel lay in third and was told to play the waiting game. During the first round of stops it looked like all three were opting for a three stop strategy, but in the end only Webber went ahead with that call. It was the second and final stops for Vettel and Grosjean which were really crucial.

When Grosjean pitted for a second time, Vettel was able to go much further, another eight laps. His tyres were much fresher and although he exited behind the Lotus he was soon ahead on lap 41. Webber then pitted from the lead to go on to the medium compound, the faster option tyre in Japan. With 10 laps to go he was more than capable of making inroads into Vettel’s lead.

But first there was Grosjean to deal with, and although he closed quickly, Grosjean is quickly maturing into a fine driver now. He was able to hold back the Australian for several laps, denying the race a grandstand finish but resulting in Vettel’s ninth win of the year.

It was a great victory which owed much to his tyre conservation skills. Webber said afterwards he reckoned he could have worked the same strategy although Red Bull deny this saying he stopped too early for his first stop after running out of grip to make a two stop work.

Webber may still have won, but whereas Vettel charged up to Grosjean and passed him almost immediately, it took Webber too long and that was the end of the fight for victory.

Vettel has been so impressive this year. This late season dominance could make us forget just how close it all was in the first half of 2013 and how he had to grind out results. He was always there. Now he has the car and tyres to fully exploit his pace, he’s shown just how good he really is yet again. The title will surely be clinched in India in two weeks time.

Grosjean is Lotus’ future

Romain Grosjean produced another fine performance with third place as he steps up to his new status as Lotus’ leading man for 2014. Well nevermind next year, he’s been the lead driver for the last few races. Despite circumstances playing against him in a few races, he has been the Lotus pace setter, especially in qualifying, and really he was the only driver to be able to challenge the Red Bull’s this weekend. He was able to lead the race confidently and never looked troubled while out in front.

He has finally managed to harness his speed with a maturity to look at the overall picture and not just a single moment which leads him to get flustered and make mistakes. That aspect looks to be disappearing. He could well have won in Japan, but the pace wasn’t quite there, especially after he pitted to cover Webber at the first stops to maintain track position when he probably could have carried on longer and match Vettel’s longer runs.

I think the win is just a matter of time and Grosjean is beginning to prove that despite Kimi Raikkonen’s consistency and race winning performances, this team has a driver who is becoming firmly established amongst the front runners. Even Vettel lauded his recent performances. No longer is he the talked of about a driver to be wary of going wheel to wheel with for detrimental reasons. Now he is a driver they have to take seriously in the fight for victories.

Webber close to a last gasp victory

It was a close run thing. Webber could have made a two stopper work, but according to his team, running behind Grosjean meant he had to pit earlier than was wanted. Even then he still had the pace to challenge for victory after he made his extra stop, he was charging Grosjean and Vettel down.

He couldn’t make the pass quickly on the Lotus and the race was over. However, it was one of his better days this year and will give him confidence and momentum as we went the last four races of the year.

Webber will want to go out in style and take at least one victory away from Vettel in the Red Bull steam roller of success. He started off well with a fantastic pole position, the first time he’d out qualified Vettel all year. It would be great to see Webber take the fight to Vettel one more time, if only he could have got past Grosjean just that bit quicker then sparks would fly. 
Here’s hoping he maintains this form as he is the man with the best opportunity to stop the Vettel victory parade.

Gutierrez joins in the Sauber renaissance

Finally after weeks of writing that Esteban Gutierrez was about to do something good, he proves me right. He followed his highly rated team mate Nico Hulkenberg over the line to claim sixth and seventh places as Sauber continue their improved form.

Hulkenberg had another eventful race, once again mixing it with the top guys. He managed to jump the likes of Nico Rosberg and the Ferrari’s in the first stop to be the first one in line to pass a late stopping Daniel Ricciardo.

Ricciardo was able to hold them back for several laps allowing a massive gap to open out to the top three, but Hulkenberg eventually passed him. However, he could do nothing to stop Fernando Alonso and then later Kimi coming by to drop him to sixth. It was still a great showing.

Gutierrez matched his team mate’s performance as he gained seven places from 14th to score his first Formula 1 points. It’s been coming for a while with the last two races particularly featuring impressive qualifying. I expect this result to give him more confidence and I wouldn’t be surprised if he scores a few more points before the year is out. Meanwhile Sauber are now only 17 points behind the fading Force India’s; sixth in the constructors is there for the taking which is incredible given their dreadful first half of the year.

Battles down the field

Alonso came home in fourth to keep the title race alive for one more race. He knows the title isn’t worth thinking about now though. He made an impressive move around the outside of Hulkenberg into turn one and held Kimi at bay too. But this isn’t what it’s about for Alonso. He also admitted he needs to improve his qualifying performances as Felipe Massa was ahead on the grid for the third time in four races.

Massa failed to take advantage of that once again as he took a drive through penalty for speeding in the pit lane and ended up tenth. This was after he apparently ignored a team order to let Alonso through. To be fair, why should he anymore, especially when the title is almost out of reach. Alonso was able to get by on his own anyway.

Kimi has begun to have a habit of qualifying behind Grosjean but ending up ahead of him by the end of the race. Not today, he was comprehensively out qualified and out raced today. Still he did climb up the field from ninth to fifth, but if he could match Grosjean’s one lap pace you still believe he might stand a better chance of claiming a victory for Lotus.

Mercedes had a very poor weekend. Lewis Hamilton started third and looked like he was going to jump both Red Bull’s at the start only to cut his tyre on Vettel’s front wing and suffer a puncture on the opening lap. It wrecked the cars floor and he retired soon later.

Rosberg managed to run fourth for a while but a drive through penalty for an unsafe pit release meant he dropped down the field and could only recover to eighth. This team are still quick but they are seriously underutilising their pace. It’s arguable if they could still take on Red Bull in a trouble free race.

Jenson Button looked impressive in qualifying but a wrong set up choice meant he wasn’t comfortable in the car during the race and could only manage ninth. McLaren have obviously written 2013 off a long time ago, but still ninth just seems wrong for a team like McLaren. Sergio Perez could only manage 17th after suffering a penalty for an incident with Rosberg.

Toro Rosso and Force India must be looking enviously at Sauber. Both have dropped pace, although you can see a way back for the Toro Rosso pair but Force India’s season appears over, which I’m sure will please the hard to please Paul di Resta.

Williams drivers battled with each other, something Pastor Maldonado doesn’t want to do, while Jules Bianchi and Geido van der Garde tried to recreate the 1990 Senna/Prost crash at turn one, but somehow it just seemed a bit of a pointless accident in their Marussia and Caterham respectively.

On to India then where Vettel can claim his fourth consecutive world championship. It’s inevitable, but it won’t mean any less, he’s been superb all year. In a way if he is to win it next race, I hope he puts on a supreme display and clinches it with a victory. Not an unlikely scenario.

Final Result:

1. Sebastian Vettel - Red Bull
2. Mark Webber - Red Bull
3. Romain Grosjean - Lotus
4. Fernando Alonso - Ferrari
5. Kimi Raikkonen - Lotus
6. Nico Hulkenberg - Sauber
7. Esteban Gutierrez - Sauber
8. Nico Rosberg - Mercedes
9. Jenson Button - McLaren
10. Felipe Massa - Ferrari
11. Paul di Resta - Force India
12. Jean-Eric Vergne - Toro Rosso
13. Daniel Ricciardo - Toro Rosso
14. Adrian Sutil - Force India
15. Sergio Perez - McLaren
16. Pastor Maldonado - Williams
17. Valtteri Bottas - Williams
18. Charles Pic - Caterham
19. Max Chilton - Marussia
R.  Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes - Puncture damage
R. Giedo van der Garde - Caterham - Accident
R. Jules Bianchi - Marussia - Accident 

all photo's taken from autosport.com 

Thursday 10 October 2013

The Japanese Forecast


The Japanese Grand Prix is pretty much beloved by all; the Suzuka is a fantastic track with a great fan base and atmosphere. Japan used to be one of the last couple of races of the year, invariably that meant it would be the host of a championship decider. Many drivers have won here to cement their name in the Formula 1 hall of fame to join the likes of Senna, Prost, Hakkinen and Schumacher who have secured their glory here.

It doesn’t happen so often now. After Japan there will still be four races to go. In fact the only driver who has manage to win the championship here in recent years is Sebastian Vettel in 2011, when he was on an equally dominant run as this year has turned out to be. And it’s here again that he has his first opportunity to wrap up the title.

If Vettel wins and Fernando Alonso finishes ninth or lower, the title is secure for the fourth year in a row. However it is by no means guaranteed that Vettel will win, despite it seeming like after four consecutive wins. It’s also highly unlikely that Alonso will finish outside the top six. No, the likelihood is the championship will appear to still be alive in to the Indian Grand Prix two weeks later.

Of course, this race isn’t just about the championship, there is an actual race up for grabs and that is more open than it might seem. First off, the simple things; the weather is meant to bring some rain with it over the weekend. Particularly at the time of writing, Friday and Saturday are meant to be wet, making qualifying a potential lottery which could spice up the race. Sunday however is dry, which means anyone out of position will have the opportunity to fight back.

There is only one DRS zone at Suzuka on the start finish straight. It’s not overly long, and it doesn’t make as big a difference as some other DRS zones. The tyres Pirelli have brought are the medium and hard tyre compounds, so you wouldn’t expect degradation to be too significant here, despite its blend of medium and fast corners which puts extra strain on the tyres.

Let’s put it out there now and say if you don’t predict that Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull will be contenders for pole and victory, you’d be pretty silly. Winner in three of the last four races here, Vettel is most certainly a driver to keep your eye on this weekend!

However, there are other contenders out there. First of all, we have to go with the Mercedes pairing, both looked strong last weekend in Korea, particularly Nico Rosberg until he fell backwards, but for various dramas and strategy calls they would have had at least one car on the podium.

Before Rosberg’s wing failure, he was just about to pass Lewis Hamilton and look to attack Romain Grosjean’s Lotus in second place. So Mercedes do still have some pace to perhaps at least make it look like a fight for victory, they just have to get it all together which they have failed to do since the summer break. I still feel Mercedes can win a few more races this year.

Hamilton has never won in Suzuka, which for a driver of his ‘calibre’ is a glaring omission from his winning record. Watch for him in practice, if he shines consistently we could be on for a good competitive weekend.

The other team pairing who both have a chance for victory are the Lotus duo of Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean. Grosjean has outpaced Kimi in qualifying for the last few races, yet the Finn still manages to come out on top during the actual races even if at the last race it was because of safety car circumstance.

Grosjean is increasingly becoming a threat; he is making less mistakes and has now learnt to combine that with the fantastic speed he possesses. Lotus are renowned for being kind to their tyres and that always stands them in good stead for the race. Once again I think Grosjean will be a podium contender. Kimi needs to qualify well to stand a chance of victory, I’m not sure they or anyone else are really on Red Bull’s level unless the tyres are critical, but he’ll certainly be a podium contender wherever he qualifies. This is the man who came from the back in 2005 to win on the last lap.

Of course let’s not forget our one remaining championship contender; Ferrari’s Alonso. If you judge them on their pace in Korea, you have to say there’s no real chance they can beat Vettel, but there’s also no real way they will fall out the top 10 this weekend. In fact with Alonso you can most likely say he’ll be up there for a podium. I think this weekend there will be too many stronger cars, but he’s a definite top six man. If Felipe Massa can put together a good whole weekend, he can also produce the result his pace deserves but his race craft hasn’t over the last few weekends.

And just in case, I don’t want to forget Mark Webber. One day the bad luck he receives will be on the other Red Bull and he has to be ahead or a close second to bask in the good. As I’ve written before, it would be great to see Webber win one more time before his time in Formula 1 is up. He’s still producing the speed, but for various reasons, the whole weekend isn’t coming together.

Other predictions for Japan; I expect Sauber’s good form to continue. They had both cars in the top 10 in qualifying last weekend and then Nico Hulkenberg took every opportunity that came to him and secured a brilliant fourth place. They are looking like heading the midfield at the moment. If the car allows then expect more of the same from the Hulk. Esteban Gutierrez was actually ahead of Hulkenberg at the start but was then pushed wide by a spinning Massa. He ended up 11th, but I feel Gutierrez’s chance to score a point is fast approaching.

Toro Rosso will want to fight back against Sauber. They are now behind them in the constructors championship despite having a far more consistent season. Daniel Ricciardo retired while in a points position last time out so they are more than capable of still being up there.

I would like to predict that Paul di Resta will get his season back on track. He’s crashed in the last three races and it looks like it’s all falling apart a bit. It’ll only take one result for that to turn, it’s just a question of it the Force India will allow it. On current form I’m not sure it will, perhaps that’s why he’s pushed a bit too far on occasion.

McLaren are a bit forgotten, but I expect more points in the lower reaches of the top 10. While Williams can expect nothing more than a midfield scrap. Caterham and Marussia will continue to fight for the tenth place in the constructors.

So who’s going to win? Well Vettel will win the championship. Who’s going to win the race? More difficult to say, but can you look past a Red Bull when the track suits highly efficient aerodynamics? No, no you can’t. So I’m going to say Lewis Hamilton. Or Kimi Raikkonen. If they don’t then I expect a mesmeric display from Vettel as he steps closer to title number four.

all photo's taken from autosport.com